Language:English
Melbourne City v Western Sydney Wanderers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne City (Local)
Prediction 51.34%1.95fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -4.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.66%51.32%51.36%53.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.811.811.8758.82%55.22%55.25%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Western Sydney Wanderers (Visit)
Prediction 23.91%4.18fair odd
EV +0.440%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.137%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.12%23.92%23.90%25.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.903.904.2027.78%25.62%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.75%4.04fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -0.762%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.04%24.76%24.74%26.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.733.753.9230.77%26.81%26.67%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne City (Local): 51.34%; Western Sydney Wanderers (Visit): 23.91%; Draw: 24.75%. For Western Sydney Wanderers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.440%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -7.59%E -4.22%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV +0.440%E +0.105%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -10.16%E -5.81%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV +0.440%E +0.105%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.23%EV -5.03%E -2.72%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.12%EV -0.038%E -0.009%K -0.012%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.65%EV -2.99%E -0.762%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -4.00%E -2.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.56%EV -1.95%E -0.476%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV -3.48%E -0.893%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-04 08:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -4.00%E -2.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.56%EV -1.95%E -0.476%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV -3.48%E -0.893%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-04 08:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.00%EV -7.08%E -3.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.24%EV -3.15%E -0.777%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.36%EV -4.00%E -2.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%EV -4.34%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.63%EV -3.48%E -0.893%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-04 08:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -4.00%E -2.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -4.34%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 08:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -4.00%E -2.14%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -4.34%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 08:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -5.03%E -2.72%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.34%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 08:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -5.03%E -2.72%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.34%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.34%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.34%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.59%E -4.22%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.34%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -7.59%E -4.22%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.54%EV -5.30%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.66%EV -6.45%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 08:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-04 08:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.39%EV -6.57%E -3.61%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.35%EV -7.08%E -3.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.35%EV -7.08%E -3.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.35%EV -7.08%E -3.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.35%EV -7.08%E -3.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.35%EV -7.08%E -3.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.35%EV -7.08%E -3.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.35%EV -7.08%E -3.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -5.54%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.85%EV -4.51%E -2.43%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.25%EV -6.73%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 08:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.73%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 08:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.73%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 08:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.73%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 08:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.73%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 08:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -6.73%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 08:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.48%EV -8.11%E -4.53%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 23.87%EV -7.69%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 24.64%EV -7.44%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 08:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.66%EV -5.03%E -2.72%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -7.93%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 08:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -12.21%E -7.14%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -7.93%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -9.67%E -2.65%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-04 08:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -5.03%E -2.72%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.13%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 08:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.59%E -4.22%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -9.13%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 08:23 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.59%E -4.22%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -9.13%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 08:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.59%E -4.22%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -9.13%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 08:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.59%E -4.22%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -9.13%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 08:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.91%EV -9.65%E -5.48%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -9.13%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.16%E -5.81%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.13%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.16%E -5.81%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.13%E -2.40%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-04 08:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -6.05%E -3.31%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -10.32%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -7.19%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 08:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.43%EV -12.21%E -7.14%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.45%EV -10.32%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -13.38%E -3.82%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-04 08:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.16%EV -11.19%E -6.47%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.14%EV -10.32%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -19.57%E -6.02%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.03%E -2.72%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -11.52%E -3.11%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 08:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.03%E -2.72%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -11.52%E -3.11%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 08:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -5.03%E -2.72%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -12.71%E -3.48%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -9.67%E -2.65%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-04 08:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.77%EV -12.73%E -7.49%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.11%EV -12.71%E -3.48%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.11%EV -9.67%E -2.65%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.25%EV -12.73%E -7.49%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.20%EV -13.91%E -3.86%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.54%EV -12.14%E -3.42%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-04 08:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.56% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30% | 0.4% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.56% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30% | 0.4% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.70% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23% | 0.7% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.70% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23% | 0.7% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.45% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 0.9% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.34% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.81% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.85% | 1.9% | 2026-04-04 08:30 |