Language:English
Melbourne City v Adelaide United
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne City (Local)
Prediction 48.88%2.05fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.62%48.95%48.85%49.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.921.922.0056.18%52.21%52.08%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adelaide United (Visit)
Prediction 26.31%3.80fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.716%
Kelly -0.981%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%26.27%26.35%27.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.463.503.7032.26%28.86%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.81%4.03fair odd
EV -0.760%
Edge -0.190%
Kelly -0.253%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.90%24.77%24.81%27.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.683.704.0032.26%27.17%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne City (Local): 48.88%; Adelaide United (Visit): 26.31%; Draw: 24.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -0.760%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -2.24%E -1.12%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -2.24%E -1.12%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 08:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -2.24%E -1.12%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -2.24%E -1.12%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 08:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.00%EV -3.71%E -1.88%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 08:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.00%EV -3.71%E -1.88%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.00%EV -3.71%E -1.88%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 08:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.00%EV -3.71%E -1.88%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.00%EV -3.71%E -1.88%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 08:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.00%EV -3.71%E -1.88%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 08:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.00%EV -3.71%E -1.88%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.69%E -2.40%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.72%E -1.51%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-20 21:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.69%E -2.40%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.72%E -1.51%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.69%E -2.40%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.96%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 14:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.69%E -2.40%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 07:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.61%EV -5.17%E -2.67%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -5.72%E -1.51%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 19:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -5.17%E -2.67%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 14:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -5.17%E -2.67%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 14:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.54%EV -5.66%E -2.93%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -0.760%E -0.190%K -0.253%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 16:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.37%EV -5.66%E -2.93%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -2.65%E -0.716%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.88%EV -4.98%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-20 14:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.37%EV -5.66%E -2.93%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -2.65%E -0.716%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.88%EV -4.98%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-20 14:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.30%EV -5.66%E -2.93%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.86%EV -3.18%E -0.863%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.84%EV -4.98%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 14:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.23%EV -6.15%E -3.20%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.83%EV -3.70%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 24.94%EV -5.97%E -1.58%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-20 00:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.15%E -3.20%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-19 10:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.15%E -3.20%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-19 10:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.38%EV -6.15%E -3.20%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 14:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.91%EV -6.15%E -3.20%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -14.49%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -11.92%E -3.36%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-23 09:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.91%EV -6.15%E -3.20%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -14.49%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -11.92%E -3.36%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-23 08:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.64%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -3.96%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -6.96%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 14:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.64%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -3.96%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -6.96%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 02:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.84%EV -6.64%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.96%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 07:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.64%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.72%E -1.51%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-20 21:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.64%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.72%E -1.51%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 09:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -6.64%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.96%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 07:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -6.64%E -3.48%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -7.13%E -3.75%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.72%E -1.51%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.13%E -3.75%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.96%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-20 14:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.44%EV -7.13%E -3.75%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -9.23%E -2.67%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.20%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 16:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -7.13%E -3.75%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.96%E -1.86%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-20 21:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.32%EV -7.62%E -4.03%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.79%EV -6.71%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-21 09:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.89%EV -8.11%E -4.31%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.55%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -14.41%E -4.18%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-23 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.57%E -5.18%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-24 03:08 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.57%E -5.18%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.68%E -2.97%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-19 08:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.57%E -5.18%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.68%E -2.97%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-19 08:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.57%E -5.18%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.68%E -2.97%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-19 08:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.57%E -5.18%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -10.68%E -2.97%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-19 08:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.30%EV -10.06%E -5.47%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -14.49%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.35%EV -9.44%E -2.59%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-22 14:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.62%EV -10.55%E -5.77%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.85%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -23.09%E -7.45%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-04-23 11:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.41%EV -11.53%E -6.37%K -14.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -13.17%E -3.76%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-22 14:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 48.63%EV -13.00%E -7.30%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.64%EV -14.49%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.73%EV -13.17%E -3.76%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-04-23 06:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 47.84%EV -13.00%E -7.30%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.47%EV -18.44%E -5.95%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 24.68%EV -14.41%E -4.18%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-04-22 14:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.14% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 14:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.14% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.96% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 22:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 22:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.62% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.15% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23% | 7.1% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09% | 10.7% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |