Language:English
Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adelaide United (Local)
Prediction 56.12%1.78fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.32%56.10%56.16%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.671.681.7364.52%59.94%59.52%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit)
Prediction 21.60%4.63fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.326%
Kelly +0.414%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.48%21.59%21.55%22.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.304.254.7025.64%23.24%23.53%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.28%4.49fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -0.713%
Kelly -0.926%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.66%22.30%22.29%24.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.134.204.3528.57%24.21%23.81%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide United (Local): 56.12%; Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit): 21.60%; Draw: 22.28%. For Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.53%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.21%EV -5.15%E -3.05%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.57%EV +1.53%E +0.326%K +0.414%G +0.006% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.22%EV -3.10%E -0.713%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.21%EV -5.15%E -3.05%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.57%EV +1.53%E +0.326%K +0.414%G +0.006% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.22%EV -3.10%E -0.713%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.04%EV -5.15%E -3.05%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.64%EV +0.882%E +0.189%K +0.240%G +0.002% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.32%EV -3.77%E -0.872%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.11%EV -4.03%E -2.36%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.32%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.57%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.69%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.69%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.69%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -7.40%E -4.48%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -7.40%E -4.48%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -10.20%E -6.38%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.55%EV -6.28%E -3.76%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.22%EV -3.87%E -0.870%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.11%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.18%EV -3.87%E -0.870%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.71%EV -7.56%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.11%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.18%EV -3.87%E -0.870%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.71%EV -7.56%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.98%EV -5.15%E -3.05%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -4.95%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.12%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.95%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -4.95%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.86%EV -7.96%E -4.85%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -4.95%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.91%E -1.68%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.13%EV -6.28%E -3.76%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.55%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.15%E -3.05%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -7.11%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.21%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.15%E -3.05%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -7.11%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.21%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -9.08%E -5.61%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -7.11%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -13.12%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.41%EV -4.59%E -2.70%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -8.19%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.41%EV -4.59%E -2.70%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -8.19%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.40%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -8.19%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-06 06:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.59%E -2.70%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.59%E -2.70%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.59%E -2.70%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.59%E -2.70%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -4.59%E -2.70%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 07:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 07:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 07:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -5.72%E -3.40%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.28%E -3.76%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.28%E -3.76%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.28%E -3.76%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.28%E -3.76%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.11%EV -5.15%E -3.05%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -9.08%E -5.61%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.40%EV -8.52%E -5.23%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.40%EV -8.52%E -5.23%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-06 07:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.18%EV -13.01%E -8.39%K -23.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.77%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.05%EV -12.01%E -3.04%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-03-06 08:23 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 54.32%EV -11.89%E -7.57%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.32%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.36%EV -22.03%E -6.30%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.55%EV -11.33%E -7.17%K -19.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.51%EV -15.75%E -4.04%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.12% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.12% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.88% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.88% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 08:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.87% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.38% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.75% | 2.2% | 2026-03-06 08:25 |