Language:English
Adelaide United v Macarthur FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adelaide United (Local)
Prediction 53.14%1.88fair odd
EV +2.02%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +2.20%
Growth +0.044%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.56%53.20%53.08%56.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.721.751.9264.10%58.00%57.14%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Macarthur FC (Visit)
Prediction 24.97%4.00fair odd
EV +8.63%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +2.58%
Growth +0.222%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.85%24.91%25.01%27.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.863.804.3529.85%25.88%26.32%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.89%4.57fair odd
EV -0.390%
Edge -0.086%
Kelly -0.110%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.16%21.89%21.91%23.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.214.204.5525.32%23.78%23.81%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide United (Local): 53.14%; Macarthur FC (Visit): 24.97%; Draw: 21.89%. For Macarthur FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.63%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.84%EV -9.14%E -5.34%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.95%EV +8.63%E +1.98%K +2.58%G +0.222% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 05:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.85%EV -10.73%E -6.39%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV +6.13%E +1.44%K +1.89%G +0.116% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -6.96%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.85%EV -10.73%E -6.39%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV +6.13%E +1.44%K +1.89%G +0.116% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -6.96%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.85%EV -11.26%E -6.74%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV +6.13%E +1.44%K +1.89%G +0.116% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -11.80%E -7.11%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +4.88%E +1.16%K +1.53%G +0.075% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -11.80%E -7.11%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +4.88%E +1.16%K +1.53%G +0.075% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -11.80%E -7.11%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +4.88%E +1.16%K +1.53%G +0.075% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -11.80%E -7.11%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +4.88%E +1.16%K +1.53%G +0.075% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -11.80%E -7.11%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +4.88%E +1.16%K +1.53%G +0.075% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -11.80%E -7.11%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +4.88%E +1.16%K +1.53%G +0.075% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 05:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -11.80%E -7.11%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +4.88%E +1.16%K +1.53%G +0.075% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 05:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.20%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.56%EV +2.39%E +0.582%K +0.770%G +0.018% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.23%EV -0.390%E -0.086%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.20%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.56%EV +2.39%E +0.582%K +0.770%G +0.018% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.23%EV -0.390%E -0.086%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.01%EV -14.45%E -8.98%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV +2.39%E +0.582%K +0.770%G +0.018% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -10.24%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.01%EV -14.45%E -8.98%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV +2.39%E +0.582%K +0.770%G +0.018% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -10.24%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -0.111%E -0.028%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 05:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.61%E -5.00%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -0.111%E -0.028%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.43%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-19 05:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.02%EV -17.11%E -10.97%K -30.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.85%EV -0.111%E -0.028%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.13%EV -13.53%E -3.42%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.01%EV -4.89%E -2.73%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.41%EV -1.11%E -0.280%K -0.375%G +0.000% | 4.48I 22.32%NM 21.58%EV -1.92%E -0.429%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-19 05:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -6.48%E -3.68%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -2.61%E -0.669%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.55%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.03%EV -3.86%E -1.00%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.42%EV -1.48%E -0.330%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-19 05:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.02%EV -10.20%E -6.04%K -14.78%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.71%EV -3.86%E -1.00%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -10.24%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-19 05:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.95%E -3.36%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -1.48%E -0.330%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.85%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -5.21%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -5.21%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.96%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-19 05:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.96%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.96%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -5.11%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -12.43%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.95%EV -5.95%E -3.36%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -6.96%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 05:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.24%EV -7.54%E -4.34%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-19 04:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -9.67%E -5.69%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -6.35%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-19 05:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.99%EV -6.48%E -3.68%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -7.10%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -6.96%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%EV -5.42%E -3.04%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.05%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 05:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%EV -5.42%E -3.04%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -7.60%E -2.05%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.86%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.60%E -2.05%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -6.96%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 05:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.09%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -8.85%E -2.43%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -5.21%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 05:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.09%EV -4.36%E -2.42%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.90%EV -9.60%E -2.65%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.01%EV -6.74%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.15%EV -10.73%E -6.39%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -10.10%E -2.81%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.05%EV -11.34%E -2.80%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.80%EV -8.61%E -5.00%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -11.35%E -3.20%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.05%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.43%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.43%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.43%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.01%E -4.01%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.60%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -12.43%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 53.19%EV -13.39%E -8.21%K -21.25%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.13%EV -13.85%E -4.01%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68%EV -12.43%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-04-19 05:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -10.73%E -6.39%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.81%EV -15.09%E -4.44%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -12.43%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV +2.02%E +1.05%K +2.20%G +0.044% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -16.34%E -4.88%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -13.53%E -3.42%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-19 05:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.29% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53% | 0.9% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.29% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53% | 0.9% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.29% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53% | 0.9% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.43% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46% | 1.2% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.84% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62% | 1.9% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.24% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27% | 2.1% | 2026-04-19 05:25 |