The School of Odds

Velez Sarsfield BA v Independiente

2026-08-03 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 41.06%2.44fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%41.03%40.79%41.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.252.3448.78%44.95%44.44%42.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 26.97%3.71fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.809%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%27.08%27.36%29.24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.313.303.6033.33%30.20%30.30%27.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 31.97%3.13fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.815%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%31.90%31.85%32.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.652.902.923.0537.74%34.54%34.25%32.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.34I 42.74%NM 40.58%EV -3.92%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.45%EV -6.69%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.97%EV -5.04%E -1.70%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 00:20
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.31%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 22:45
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.31%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 22:50
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -8.31%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.68%E -1.93%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 23:58
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -12.35%E -3.80%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -2.49%E -0.815%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-27 22:40
Marathon Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.31%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.97%EV -6.64%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-28 00:19
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -13.70%E -4.28%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-27 22:44
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -5.56%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -15.05%E -4.78%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-27 22:50
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.62%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -2.91%E -0.809%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -8.88%E -3.12%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 22:40
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.62%E -3.38%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -13.70%E -4.28%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.08%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-27 22:50
Codere (IT)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.48%EV -8.44%E -3.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -4.26%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -8.88%E -3.12%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-27 22:45
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -16.40%E -5.29%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-27 22:45
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -11.72%E -5.45%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -19.09%E -6.36%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-27 22:45
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -13.77%E -6.56%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.00%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -10.48%E -3.74%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-27 22:40
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.83%EV -13.77%E -6.56%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.99%EV -8.85%E -2.62%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.18%EV -12.72%E -4.66%K -7.35%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-27 22:40
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 41.91%EV -15.83%E -7.72%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -13.70%E -4.28%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -12.08%E -4.39%K -6.90%G +0.000%16.4%2026-07-27 22:40
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 41.76%EV -15.83%E -7.72%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -11.00%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.30%EV -15.27%E -5.76%K -9.26%G +0.000%16.8%2026-07-27 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.