Language:English
Velez Sarsfield BA v Independiente
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Prediction 37.84%2.64fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.98%37.96%37.87%39.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.5743.48%40.85%40.82%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente (Visit)
Prediction 30.90%3.24fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.348%
Kelly -0.507%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.27%30.80%30.89%32.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.003.003.2035.09%33.34%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.25%3.20fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.99%31.24%31.25%32.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.983.003.1035.71%33.56%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 37.84%; Independiente (Visit): 30.90%; Draw: 31.25%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -1.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.66%EV -2.74%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.02%EV -3.59%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.32%EV -3.42%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.78%EV -3.12%E -1.22%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -2.66%E -0.844%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.51%EV -4.05%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.88%EV -3.50%E -1.37%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.86%EV -3.28%E -1.05%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.26%EV -3.42%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-03 21:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.88%EV -3.50%E -1.37%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.86%EV -3.28%E -1.05%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.26%EV -3.42%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.70%EV -4.63%E -1.84%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.70%EV -4.63%E -1.84%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.66%EV -4.63%E -1.84%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.71%EV -4.51%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -1.11%E -0.348%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-03 21:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-03 21:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.11%E -1.00%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.08%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 21:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.08%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.07%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.71%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.65%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-03 21:47 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.11%E -1.00%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-03 21:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -11.00%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-03 15:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.99%E -3.47%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.99%E -3.47%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -9.93%E -4.17%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -9.93%E -4.17%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-03 21:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -9.93%E -4.17%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -12.49%E -4.46%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -11.07%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -11.07%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.75%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-03 21:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.54%EV -11.07%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.95%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.51%EV -12.49%E -4.46%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-03 21:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.24%EV -11.82%E -5.07%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.04%EV -10.30%E -3.59%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -12.96%E -5.63%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -12.96%E -5.63%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29% | 1.5% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.11% | 3.0% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.