Idioma:Español
Velez Sarsfield BA v Independiente
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Predicción 37.84%2.64momio equitativo
EV -2.74%
Ventaja -1.07%
Kelly -1.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.98%37.96%37.87%39.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.452.452.5743.48%40.85%40.82%38.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Independiente (Visitante)
Predicción 30.90%3.24momio equitativo
EV -1.11%
Ventaja -0.348%
Kelly -0.507%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.27%30.80%30.89%32.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.003.003.2035.09%33.34%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.25%3.20momio equitativo
EV -3.11%
Ventaja -1.00%
Kelly -1.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.99%31.24%31.25%32.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.983.003.1035.71%33.56%33.33%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 37.84%; Independiente (Visitante): 30.90%; Empate: 31.25%. Para Independiente (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.24. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.20, con un valor esperado de -1.11%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.66%EV -2.74%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.02%EV -3.59%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.32%EV -3.42%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.78%EV -3.12%E -1.22%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -2.66%E -0.844%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.51%EV -4.05%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.88%EV -3.50%E -1.37%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.86%EV -3.28%E -1.05%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.26%EV -3.42%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-03 21:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.88%EV -3.50%E -1.37%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.86%EV -3.28%E -1.05%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.26%EV -3.42%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.70%EV -4.63%E -1.84%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.70%EV -4.63%E -1.84%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.66%EV -4.63%E -1.84%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.71%EV -4.51%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -1.11%E -0.348%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-03 21:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-03 21:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.11%E -1.00%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.08%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 21:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.08%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.07%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.71%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.65%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-03 21:47 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -4.67%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 21:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.11%E -1.00%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-03 21:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -11.00%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-03 15:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.99%E -3.47%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.17%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.99%E -3.47%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -9.93%E -4.17%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -9.93%E -4.17%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-03 21:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -9.93%E -4.17%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -12.49%E -4.46%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -11.07%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -11.07%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.75%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-03 21:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.54%EV -11.07%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.95%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.51%EV -12.49%E -4.46%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-03 21:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.24%EV -11.82%E -5.07%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.04%EV -10.30%E -3.59%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -12.96%E -5.63%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -12.96%E -5.63%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29% | 1.5% | 2026-08-03 21:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.11% | 3.0% | 2026-08-03 21:45 |