Language:English
Union Santa Fe v Newells Old Boys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Union Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 57.65%1.73fair odd
EV -0.844%
Edge -0.491%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%57.64%57.53%59.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.611.7265.36%62.22%62.11%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Newells Old Boys (Visit)
Prediction 16.10%6.21fair odd
EV +8.17%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.117%
assuming max odds 6.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.28%16.05%16.26%18.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.705.756.7222.22%17.54%17.39%14.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.25%3.81fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.556%
Kelly -0.759%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.01%26.31%26.21%28.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.503.503.7333.33%28.55%28.57%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 57.65%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 16.10%; Draw: 26.25%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.21. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.72, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.99%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 6.72I 14.88%NM 14.28%EV +8.17%E +1.22%K +1.43%G +0.117% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.73%EV -2.07%E -0.556%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.76%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.42%EV +6.24%E +0.946%K +1.11%G +0.070% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.82%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.76%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.42%EV +6.24%E +0.946%K +1.11%G +0.070% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.82%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.81%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV +0.607%E +0.097%K +0.116%G +0.001% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.00%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.15%EV -0.198%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.00%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.15%EV -0.198%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.63%EV -8.34%E -5.24%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.04%EV -0.198%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.33%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.70%EV -7.19%E -4.46%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -2.86%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.70%EV -7.19%E -4.46%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -2.86%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -2.86%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -9.49%E -6.05%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.07%EV -0.844%E -0.491%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.92I 16.89%NM 16.29%EV -4.70%E -0.795%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.64%EV -8.37%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -6.64%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.30%EV -4.88%E -2.96%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.30%EV -4.88%E -2.96%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.15%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.38%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -2.86%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.45%EV -10.07%E -6.45%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.45%EV -10.07%E -6.45%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-17 23:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.52%EV -11.22%E -7.29%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.09%EV -9.86%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -4.30%E -2.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.47%EV -7.19%E -4.46%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -7.19%E -4.46%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.77%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -3.15%E -1.88%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -9.42%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 23:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.13%EV -4.30%E -2.59%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.93%EV -9.49%E -6.05%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.55%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 26.52%EV -11.52%E -3.42%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-17 23:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.69%EV -11.80%E -7.71%K -22.26%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.35%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.77%EV -8.91%E -5.64%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.22%EV -14.69%E -2.77%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -4.17%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.66%EV -11.80%E -7.71%K -22.26%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.67%EV -16.29%E -3.13%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -14.67%E -4.52%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -19.51%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.05%EV -13.36%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.64%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -19.51%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -15.99%E -5.00%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.25%EV -10.07%E -6.45%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -19.51%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -12.05%E -3.60%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 52.63%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.95%EV -27.56%E -6.13%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.42%EV -21.24%E -7.08%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-04-17 23:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.59% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19% | 0.5% | 2026-04-17 23:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.59% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19% | 0.5% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.74% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10% | 0.8% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.50% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.82% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.1% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.01% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.32% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67% | 2.7% | 2026-04-17 23:25 |