L’École des cotes

Union Santa Fe v Newells Old Boys

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-17 23:30 UTC

Score final : Union Santa Fe 2–3 Newells Old Boys

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prévision 57.65%1.73cote équitable
EV -0.844%
Avantage -0.491%
Kelly -1.17%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.72

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.63%57.64%57.53%59.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.531.611.611.7265.36%62.22%62.11%58.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Newells Old Boys (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.10%6.21cote équitable
EV +8.17%
Avantage +1.22%
Kelly +1.43%
Croissance +0.117%

avec la cote maximale 6.72

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.28%16.05%16.26%18.95%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.705.756.7222.22%17.54%17.39%14.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.25%3.81cote équitable
EV -2.07%
Avantage -0.556%
Kelly -0.759%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.73

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.01%26.31%26.21%28.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.503.503.7333.33%28.55%28.57%26.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.99%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.28%EV +8.17%E +1.22%K +1.43%G +0.117%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.73%EV -2.07%E -0.556%K -0.759%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-17 23:25
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 58.76%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.42%EV +6.24%E +0.946%K +1.11%G +0.070%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.82%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 23:25
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 58.76%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.42%EV +6.24%E +0.946%K +1.11%G +0.070%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.82%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 23:25
Everygame1.60I 62.50%NM 58.81%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV +0.607%E +0.097%K +0.116%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 23:25
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.00%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.15%EV -0.198%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 23:25
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 58.00%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.15%EV -0.198%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 23:25
Marathon Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 58.63%EV -8.34%E -5.24%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.04%EV -0.198%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.33%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 23:25
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.70%EV -7.19%E -4.46%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -2.86%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 23:15
Unibet (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.70%EV -7.19%E -4.46%K -11.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -2.86%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 23:15
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -2.86%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 23:15
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -9.49%E -6.05%K -16.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 23:25
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 56.07%EV -0.844%E -0.491%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.29%EV -4.70%E -0.795%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.64%EV -8.37%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-17 23:15
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -6.64%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 23:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.30%EV -4.88%E -2.96%K -7.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 23:25
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 57.30%EV -4.88%E -2.96%K -7.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 23:25
theScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.15%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.38%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -2.86%E -0.773%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 23:25
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 23:25
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 23:25
LiveScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 58.45%EV -10.07%E -6.45%K -17.98%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-17 23:15
Virgin Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 58.45%EV -10.07%E -6.45%K -17.98%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -7.44%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-17 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.54I 64.94%NM 58.52%EV -11.22%E -7.29%K -20.78%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.09%EV -9.86%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -6.80%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-17 23:15
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 23:25
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.86%EV -4.30%E -2.59%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 23:15
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 57.47%EV -7.19%E -4.46%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.49%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 23:25
Bet Right1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -7.19%E -4.46%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 23:25
betfred_uk1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-17 23:25
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.77%EV -7.76%E -4.85%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-17 23:25
Bovada1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -3.15%E -1.88%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -9.42%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 23:10
BetAnything1.66I 60.24%NM 56.13%EV -4.30%E -2.59%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.11%E -2.32%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 23:25
Betclic (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.93%EV -9.49%E -6.05%K -16.65%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.55%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.52%EV -11.52%E -3.42%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-17 23:24
Unibet (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 57.69%EV -11.80%E -7.71%K -22.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.35%EV -13.08%E -2.42%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-17 23:25
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.77%EV -8.91%E -5.64%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.22%EV -14.69%E -2.77%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -4.17%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 23:25
NetBet (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 56.66%EV -11.80%E -7.71%K -22.26%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.67%EV -16.29%E -3.13%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -14.67%E -4.52%K -6.52%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-17 23:25
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -19.51%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.05%EV -13.36%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-17 23:15
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 54.64%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -19.51%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -15.99%E -5.00%K -7.27%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-17 23:15
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.25%EV -10.07%E -6.45%K -17.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -19.51%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -12.05%E -3.60%K -5.13%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-17 23:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.63%EV -6.61%E -4.08%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.95%EV -27.56%E -6.13%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.42%EV -21.24%E -7.08%K -10.62%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-17 23:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.59%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-04-17 23:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.59%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-04-17 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.74%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-04-17 23:25
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-04-17 23:25
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.50%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.1%2026-04-17 23:25
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.01%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%2.7%2026-04-17 23:25