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Sarmiento de Junin v Estudiantes

2026-08-23 17:45 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 25.81%3.87fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -0.688%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.47%25.63%25.81%27.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.033.473.503.8033.00%28.80%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 42.94%2.33fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.48%43.06%42.94%43.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.122.2250.00%47.51%47.17%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.25%3.20fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.96%31.31%31.25%32.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.892.923.1038.02%34.64%34.31%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 25.81%; Estudiantes (Visit): 42.94%; Draw: 31.25%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.80, with an expected value of -1.93%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -1.93%E -0.507%K -0.688%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.46%EV -8.11%E -3.79%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.07%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 20:50
1xBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.33%EV -3.22%E -0.858%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -4.68%E -2.11%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.88%EV -6.86%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-10 02:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.35%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.80%EV -6.40%E -2.93%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -8.43%E -2.88%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 02:30
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -7.09%E -1.97%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.54%E -2.52%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -3.11%E -1.00%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 23:50
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -9.67%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.68%E -3.57%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -4.68%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 21:10
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.67%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.68%E -3.57%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 21:09
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -9.67%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -14.12%E -7.06%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -12.49%E -4.46%K -6.94%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-09 20:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%EV -9.67%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.25%EV -14.12%E -7.06%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%EV -15.62%E -5.78%K -9.19%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-09 20:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -12.25%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -14.12%E -7.06%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -14.05%E -5.11%K -8.03%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-09 20:55
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -14.83%E -4.49%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.83%E -4.68%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 21:10
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.63%EV -19.99%E -6.45%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.78%EV -11.98%E -5.84%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.59%EV -12.49%E -4.46%K -6.94%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-09 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 27.66%EV -21.80%E -7.19%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 40.48%EV -11.12%E -5.37%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.86%EV -17.80%E -6.77%K -10.92%G +0.000%19.3%2026-08-09 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.