Language:English
San Lorenzo v Union Santa Fe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
San Lorenzo (Local)
Prediction 33.02%3.03fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.813%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.26%33.53%32.98%37.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.752.802.9840.82%36.41%35.71%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Union Santa Fe (Visit)
Prediction 35.40%2.82fair odd
EV +9.75%
Edge +3.14%
Kelly +4.64%
Growth +0.452%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.99%34.93%35.49%36.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.662.653.1040.82%37.57%37.74%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.58%3.17fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.677%
Kelly -0.999%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.39%31.54%31.53%32.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.953.1036.36%34.11%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 33.02%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 35.40%; Draw: 31.58%. For Union Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.75%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -19.11%E -7.80%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV +9.75%E +3.14%K +4.64%G +0.452% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-11 17:18 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -13.17%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV +1.96%E +0.679%K +1.04%G +0.020% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -6.83%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -13.17%E -5.01%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV +1.96%E +0.679%K +1.04%G +0.020% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -6.83%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -15.81%E -6.20%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -0.875%E -0.313%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -6.83%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.15%EV -7.22%E -2.57%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.39%EV -1.23%E -0.441%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -3.68%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.87%EV -2.93%E -0.997%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.65%E -0.962%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.00%EV -4.62%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.87%EV -2.93%E -0.997%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.65%E -0.962%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.00%EV -4.62%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.46%EV -1.61%E -0.540%K -0.813%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.83%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.71%EV -3.68%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.25%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.13%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -6.83%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 17:13 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.27%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.12%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -13.50%E -5.15%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-15 17:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.66%EV -18.12%E -7.31%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.75%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.66%EV -18.12%E -7.31%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.75%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.74%EV -19.11%E -7.80%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.43%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.84%EV -13.15%E -4.78%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -4.25%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 17:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -4.25%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.90%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.83%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -6.83%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.96%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -2.10%E -0.677%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.37%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.04%EV -8.10%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 17:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.34%EV -4.91%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.55%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -13.50%E -5.15%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-15 17:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -7.55%E -2.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -11.57%E -4.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.09%EV -12.51%E -4.72%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.62%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.60%EV -9.73%E -3.81%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -6.83%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.85%E -4.02%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -9.99%E -3.51%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.63%EV -12.51%E -4.72%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -11.50%E -4.60%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -13.15%E -4.78%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.84%EV -11.84%E -4.44%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 35.50%EV -12.56%E -5.08%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 31.66%EV -12.52%E -4.52%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.20%E -3.35%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -13.27%E -5.41%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-15 17:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.10% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.10% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.26% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 17:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.25% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.41% | 2.0% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.05% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48% | 2.6% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
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