The School of Odds
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San Lorenzo v Union Santa Fe

2026-08-15 17:30 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Prediction 34.54%2.90fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.549%
Kelly -0.846%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.32%34.54%34.54%34.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.702.8540.00%37.11%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 33.30%3.00fair odd
EV -6.75%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.30%33.30%33.30%34.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.742.762.8038.46%36.54%36.23%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.16%3.11fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.07%32.16%32.16%32.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.852.902.9337.04%35.03%34.48%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Lorenzo (Local): 34.54%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 33.30%; Draw: 32.16%. For San Lorenzo (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.85, with an expected value of -1.57%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -1.57%E -0.549%K -0.846%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.28%EV -7.75%E -2.80%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.41%EV -5.78%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 23:40
Bovada2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -3.29%E -1.18%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -8.41%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.75%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-03 02:53
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -6.75%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 19:09
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -6.75%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 19:09
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-02 19:09
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -13.65%E -5.46%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -13.41%E -5.16%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.07%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-02 19:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55