Language:English
River Plate v Sarmiento de Junin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
River Plate (Local)
Prediction 64.35%1.55fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -9.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.56%64.28%64.36%65.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.431.441.4878.13%69.72%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)
Prediction 12.08%8.28fair odd
EV +14.61%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +1.72%
Growth +0.251%
assuming max odds 9.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.12%12.13%12.01%13.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.778.009.4915.38%12.87%12.50%10.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.58%4.24fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.403%
Kelly -0.530%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.52%23.59%23.63%25.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.883.904.1729.41%25.76%25.64%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 64.35%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 12.08%; Draw: 23.58%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.28. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.61%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.32%EV -5.41%E -3.68%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 9.49I 10.54%NM 10.12%EV +14.61%E +1.54%K +1.72%G +0.251% | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.56%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.63%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV +2.65%E +0.312%K +0.353%G +0.009% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.20%EV -7.99%E -5.58%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.37%EV -0.973%E -0.119%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -6.16%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.08%EV -4.77%E -3.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 8.15I 12.27%NM 11.82%EV -1.58%E -0.194%K -0.221%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.10%EV -1.68%E -0.403%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.34%E -5.10%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.59%EV -2.18%E -0.269%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.19%EV -4.51%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.34%E -5.10%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.59%EV -2.18%E -0.269%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.19%EV -4.51%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -5.41%E -3.68%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.94%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.07%EV -2.39%E -0.577%K -0.760%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-15 21:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -5.41%E -3.68%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.94%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.07%EV -2.39%E -0.577%K -0.760%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-15 21:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.12%EV -4.77%E -3.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.02%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.12%EV -4.77%E -3.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.02%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.31%EV -7.34%E -5.10%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -3.33%E -0.812%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-15 21:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -6.70%E -4.62%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 22:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.74%EV -7.34%E -5.10%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-15 22:37 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.99%EV -6.70%E -4.62%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.94%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -3.33%E -0.812%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.67%EV -8.63%E -6.08%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -9.22%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.73%EV -7.34%E -5.10%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.76%E -3.45%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.19%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-15 22:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.79%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV -3.39%E -0.424%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.18%EV -6.06%E -4.15%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.09%EV -6.41%E -0.827%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.38%EV -8.63%E -6.08%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.61%EV -6.41%E -0.827%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -15.12%E -4.20%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -4.77%E -3.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -4.77%E -3.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.96%EV -5.41%E -3.68%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.69%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -4.77%E -3.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -4.77%E -3.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 22:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.66%EV -7.34%E -5.10%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.98%EV -8.63%E -6.08%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.98%EV -8.63%E -6.08%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -10.40%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.10%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.93%EV -11.58%E -3.09%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.47%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -15.12%E -4.20%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.56%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.68%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.76%EV -19.83%E -5.83%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 65.09%EV -17.64%E -13.78%K -62.99%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.11%EV -9.43%E -1.26%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.80%EV -17.48%E -4.99%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 20.0% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.67%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 12.56%EV -14.26%E -2.01%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -11.58%E -3.09%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.31%EV -9.27%E -6.58%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -15.46%E -2.21%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 23.93%EV -12.05%E -3.23%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-15 22:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -7.99%E -5.58%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -18.48%E -2.74%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.94%EV -9.92%E -7.08%K -24.79%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.56%EV -21.50%E -3.31%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.50%EV -11.58%E -3.09%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-15 22:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.84% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.50% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.66% | 0.3% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.49% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18% | 0.3% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.45% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07% | 0.8% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60% | 0.9% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96% | 1.3% | 2026-03-15 22:40 |