Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

River Plate v Rosario Central

Início: 2026-08-02 22:15 UTC

Final: River Plate 0–1 Rosario Central

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

39 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

River Plate (Local)

Previsão 48.65%2.06odd justa
EV -2.71%
Vantagem -1.35%
Kelly -2.71%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.78%48.65%48.61%50.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.781.911.912.0056.18%52.41%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Rosario Central (Visitante)

Previsão 20.88%4.79odd justa
EV +0.663%
Vantagem +0.138%
Kelly +0.174%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.92%20.90%20.84%23.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.904.434.454.8225.64%22.58%22.47%20.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.47%3.28odd justa
EV -2.50%
Vantagem -0.780%
Kelly -1.14%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.40%30.45%30.55%31.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.873.053.053.2034.84%32.83%32.79%31.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: River Plate (Local): 48.65%; Rosario Central (Visitante): 20.88%; Empate: 30.47%. Para Rosario Central (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.79. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.82, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.663%.

Odds das casas de apostas (39 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.07%EV -4.17%E -2.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.05%EV +0.663%E +0.138%K +0.174%G +0.001%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.88%EV -4.63%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-02 22:05
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.49%EV -3.68%E -1.86%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.92%EV +0.663%E +0.138%K +0.174%G +0.001%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.59%EV -7.37%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 22:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.50%EV -5.63%E -2.90%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +0.245%E +0.051%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.49%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 22:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.50%EV -5.63%E -2.90%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +0.245%E +0.051%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.49%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 22:10
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.27%EV -2.89%E -0.621%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 22:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.47%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 22:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -8.55%E -4.55%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -2.50%E -0.780%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 22:05
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -8.55%E -4.55%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -2.50%E -0.780%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 22:05
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 21:49
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 22:10
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.50%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 22:09
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 22:04
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 22:04
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -5.63%E -2.90%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 21:47
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.76%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 22:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 22:10
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 22:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.35%EV -11.95%E -6.60%K -14.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 22:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.35%EV -11.95%E -6.60%K -14.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 22:09
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -3.68%E -1.86%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -7.06%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 22:09
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -3.68%E -1.86%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -7.06%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 22:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.26%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 21:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.16%EV -12.92%E -7.22%K -16.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.41%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-02 22:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.52%EV -12.44%E -6.91%K -15.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-02 22:09
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -9.15%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-02 21:39
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 21:34
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.14%EV -9.03%E -4.83%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 21:50
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.65%EV -7.57%E -3.99%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.91%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -12.25%E -4.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 21:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.65%EV -7.57%E -3.99%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.91%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -12.25%E -4.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-02 22:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -10.20%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.92%EV -4.94%E -1.58%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 22:05
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.80%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -10.20%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.49%EV -10.49%E -5.70%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.75%EV -10.20%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.76%EV -11.64%E -4.01%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 22:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.16%EV -13.41%E -7.53%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.35%EV -10.20%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.49%EV -12.55%E -4.37%K -6.71%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-02 21:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.45%EV -8.55%E -4.55%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -12.29%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 22:09
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.01%EV -10.00%E -5.41%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -12.29%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -12.25%E -4.25%K -6.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-02 21:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.98%EV -9.52%E -5.12%K -11.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -14.37%E -3.51%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 22:09
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -16.46%E -4.12%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 21:49
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.78%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -17.51%E -4.43%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-02 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.27%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -18.55%E -4.76%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-02 22:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%0.6%2026-08-02 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.69%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-08-02 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.69%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-08-02 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.69%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-08-02 22:10
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-08-02 22:10