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River Plate v Rosario Central
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
River Plate (Local)
Predicción 48.65%2.06momio equitativo
EV -2.71%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.78%48.65%48.61%50.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.911.912.0056.18%52.41%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Rosario Central (Visitante)
Predicción 20.88%4.79momio equitativo
EV +0.663%
Ventaja +0.138%
Kelly +0.174%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.82
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.92%20.90%20.84%23.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.434.454.8225.64%22.58%22.47%20.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 30.47%3.28momio equitativo
EV -2.50%
Ventaja -0.780%
Kelly -1.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.40%30.45%30.55%31.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.873.053.053.2034.84%32.83%32.79%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: River Plate (Local): 48.65%; Rosario Central (Visitante): 20.88%; Empate: 30.47%. Para Rosario Central (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.79. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.82, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.663%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.07%EV -4.17%E -2.12%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 20.05%EV +0.663%E +0.138%K +0.174%G +0.001% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.88%EV -4.63%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-02 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.49%EV -3.68%E -1.86%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 19.92%EV +0.663%E +0.138%K +0.174%G +0.001% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.59%EV -7.37%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-02 22:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.50%EV -5.63%E -2.90%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +0.245%E +0.051%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.49%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.50%EV -5.63%E -2.90%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01%EV +0.245%E +0.051%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.49%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.27%EV -2.89%E -0.621%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.47%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -8.55%E -4.55%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -2.50%E -0.780%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -8.55%E -4.55%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -2.50%E -0.780%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-02 21:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -3.93%E -0.855%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.50%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-02 22:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-02 22:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -5.63%E -2.90%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-02 21:47 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.76%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-02 22:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.35%EV -11.95%E -6.60%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-02 22:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.35%EV -11.95%E -6.60%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -3.68%E -1.86%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -7.06%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -3.68%E -1.86%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -7.06%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-02 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.26%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-02 21:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.16%EV -12.92%E -7.22%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.41%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-02 22:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.52%EV -12.44%E -6.91%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -9.15%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-02 21:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -7.09%E -3.71%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-02 21:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.14%EV -9.03%E -4.83%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-02 21:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.65%EV -7.57%E -3.99%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.91%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -12.25%E -4.25%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-02 21:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.65%EV -7.57%E -3.99%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.91%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -12.25%E -4.25%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-02 22:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -10.20%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.92%EV -4.94%E -1.58%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-02 22:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.80%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -10.20%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-02 22:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.49%EV -10.49%E -5.70%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.75%EV -10.20%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.76%EV -11.64%E -4.01%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.16%EV -13.41%E -7.53%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.35%EV -10.20%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.49%EV -12.55%E -4.37%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-02 21:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.45%EV -8.55%E -4.55%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -12.29%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.01%EV -10.00%E -5.41%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -12.29%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -12.25%E -4.25%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-02 21:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.98%EV -9.52%E -5.12%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -14.37%E -3.51%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -16.46%E -4.12%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-02 21:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.78%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -17.51%E -4.43%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.27%EV -5.14%E -2.64%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -18.55%E -4.76%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.59%EV -10.11%E -3.43%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-02 22:09 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06% | 0.6% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.69% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-08-02 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.69% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-08-02 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.69% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36% | 2.0% | 2026-08-02 22:10 |