Language:English
River Plate v Argentinos Juniors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
River Plate (Local)
Prediction 49.67%2.01fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.16%49.85%49.70%52.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.861.861.9556.82%53.73%53.76%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Argentinos Juniors (Visit)
Prediction 21.13%4.73fair odd
EV +4.59%
Edge +0.927%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 4.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.54%21.03%20.99%22.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.394.334.9524.39%22.79%23.09%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.20%3.42fair odd
EV +0.165%
Edge +0.048%
Kelly +0.068%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.19%29.12%29.30%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.203.4334.48%31.52%31.25%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 49.67%; Argentinos Juniors (Visit): 21.13%; Draw: 29.20%. For Argentinos Juniors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.54%EV +4.59%E +0.927%K +1.16%G +0.053% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.19%EV +0.165%E +0.048%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.54%EV +4.59%E +0.927%K +1.16%G +0.053% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.19%EV +0.165%E +0.048%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.54%EV +4.59%E +0.927%K +1.16%G +0.053% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.19%EV +0.165%E +0.048%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.62%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.82%EV +2.90%E +0.595%K +0.749%G +0.022% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.56%EV -1.30%E -0.383%K -0.544%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.01%EV -4.64%E -2.42%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.17%EV +0.575%E +0.121%K +0.153%G +0.001% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.82%EV -5.97%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 20:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.22%EV -9.11%E -4.98%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -2.81%E -0.610%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.74%EV -6.13%E -3.24%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -9.11%E -4.98%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.11%EV -4.64%E -2.42%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -4.14%E -2.15%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -4.14%E -2.15%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.41%EV -6.13%E -3.24%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.37%EV -7.14%E -2.24%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 20:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.70%EV -12.58%E -7.15%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.51%EV -8.09%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.90%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.07%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.64%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.32%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -10.60%E -5.89%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -10.60%E -5.89%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.35%EV -3.15%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -10.20%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.81%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -10.20%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 20:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.80%EV -11.09%E -6.20%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.97%EV -10.20%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -10.93%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.16%EV -4.64%E -2.42%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-16 13:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.67%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.11%E -4.98%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-16 13:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.60%E -5.89%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.72%EV -12.09%E -6.83%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.95%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.83%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-16 13:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.51%EV -10.60%E -5.89%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.25%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.10%EV -13.85%E -4.70%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.25%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.10%EV -13.85%E -4.70%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.27%EV -9.60%E -5.28%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%EV -15.31%E -5.28%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.27% | 0.5% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 20:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.91% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |