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River Plate v Argentinos Juniors
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
River Plate (Local)
Predicción 49.67%2.01momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -1.61%
Kelly -3.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.16%49.85%49.70%52.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.861.861.9556.82%53.73%53.76%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Argentinos Juniors (Visitante)
Predicción 21.13%4.73momio equitativo
EV +4.59%
Ventaja +0.927%
Kelly +1.16%
Crecimiento +0.053%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.54%21.03%20.99%22.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.394.334.9524.39%22.79%23.09%20.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 29.20%3.42momio equitativo
EV +0.165%
Ventaja +0.048%
Kelly +0.068%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.43
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.19%29.12%29.30%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.173.203.4334.48%31.52%31.25%29.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: River Plate (Local): 49.67%; Argentinos Juniors (Visitante): 21.13%; Empate: 29.20%. Para Argentinos Juniors (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.73. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.95, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.59%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.54%EV +4.59%E +0.927%K +1.16%G +0.053% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.19%EV +0.165%E +0.048%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.54%EV +4.59%E +0.927%K +1.16%G +0.053% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.19%EV +0.165%E +0.048%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.54%EV +4.59%E +0.927%K +1.16%G +0.053% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.19%EV +0.165%E +0.048%K +0.068%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.62%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.82%EV +2.90%E +0.595%K +0.749%G +0.022% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.56%EV -1.30%E -0.383%K -0.544%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.01%EV -4.64%E -2.42%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.17%EV +0.575%E +0.121%K +0.153%G +0.001% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.82%EV -5.97%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 20:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.22%EV -9.11%E -4.98%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -2.81%E -0.610%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.74%EV -6.13%E -3.24%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.09%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-16 20:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -9.11%E -4.98%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -4.92%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.11%EV -4.64%E -2.42%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -4.14%E -2.15%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -4.14%E -2.15%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.41%EV -6.13%E -3.24%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.37%EV -7.14%E -2.24%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -7.03%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 20:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.70%EV -12.58%E -7.15%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.51%EV -8.09%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.90%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.07%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.64%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.32%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -10.60%E -5.89%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -10.60%E -5.89%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.51%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.35%EV -3.15%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -10.20%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.81%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -10.20%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 20:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.80%EV -11.09%E -6.20%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.97%EV -10.20%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -10.93%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.16%EV -4.64%E -2.42%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-16 13:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.67%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.11%E -4.98%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-16 13:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.60%E -5.89%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-16 20:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.72%EV -12.09%E -6.83%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.95%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.83%EV -8.11%E -4.39%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-16 13:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.51%EV -10.60%E -5.89%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -9.47%E -3.06%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 20:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.25%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.10%EV -13.85%E -4.70%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.25%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.10%EV -13.85%E -4.70%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.27%EV -9.60%E -5.28%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -13.37%E -3.26%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%EV -15.31%E -5.28%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-16 20:49 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.27% | 0.5% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 20:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.91% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |