The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Newells Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield BA

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC

Final: Newells Old Boys 1–1 Velez Sarsfield BA

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Prediction 32.84%3.05fair odd
EV +1.79%
Edge +0.578%
Kelly +0.853%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.08%32.63%32.93%34.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.842.853.1038.17%35.25%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 35.18%2.84fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.54%35.41%35.14%38.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.582.642.7544.44%38.80%37.88%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.99%3.13fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.801%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.39%31.96%31.93%32.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.903.0537.04%34.47%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newells Old Boys (Local): 32.84%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 35.18%; Draw: 31.99%. For Newells Old Boys (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV +1.79%E +0.578%K +0.853%G +0.015%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -15.57%E -6.49%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV +1.79%E +0.578%K +0.853%G +0.015%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -15.57%E -6.49%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 13:10
LowVig.ag🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.15%EV +0.478%E +0.156%K +0.232%G +0.001%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -7.13%E -2.70%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 23:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.15%EV +0.478%E +0.156%K +0.232%G +0.001%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -7.13%E -2.70%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 23:50
BetAnything🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.15%EV +0.478%E +0.156%K +0.232%G +0.001%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -7.13%E -2.70%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-08 12:45
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV +0.149%E +0.049%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.65%EV -16.27%E -6.84%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 13:10
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.55%EV -3.79%E -1.29%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.77%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 07:00
1xBet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.42%EV -3.79%E -1.29%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -4.31%E -1.59%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.65%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -4.78%E -1.65%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.67%EV -19.79%E -8.68%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.93%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-09 13:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -4.78%E -1.65%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.67%EV -19.79%E -8.68%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.93%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-09 13:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -5.43%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.96%EV -6.07%E -2.27%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.63%EV -8.52%E -2.98%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.22%EV -5.43%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -20.85%E -9.27%K -16.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.09%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-09 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.76%E -2.01%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 02:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 08:09
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.65%EV -4.31%E -1.59%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.60%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 07:00
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.65%EV -4.31%E -1.59%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.60%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:03
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 23:19
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 02:51
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 23:09
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.88%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 02:49
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -8.06%E -2.88%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 06:54
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -8.06%E -2.88%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -8.54%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 12:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 23:09
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -2.44%E -0.801%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 23:10
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 23:14
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.75%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 23:09
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 23:13
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.56%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 12:55
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 23:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-07 12:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -11.35%E -4.50%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -13.64%E -5.05%K -8.02%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-09 11:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.50%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.82%EV -13.81%E -5.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.68%EV -11.40%E -4.12%K -6.44%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-07 12:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.21%EV -15.57%E -6.49%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.60%EV -12.04%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-07 20:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.02%EV -12.99%E -4.90%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.72%EV -13.81%E -5.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.26%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-07 12:39
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -13.64%E -5.19%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -7.88%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 23:09
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -13.97%E -5.33%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 23:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 33.00%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.96%3.12I 32.05%NM 32.04%0.0%2026-09-09 07:00
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 30.43%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.98%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%10.3%2026-09-09 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 31.34%2.46I 40.65%NM 35.93%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.73%13.1%2026-09-09 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 31.34%2.46I 40.65%NM 35.93%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.73%13.1%2026-09-09 17:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 21.59%1.09I 91.74%NM 55.86%2.70I 37.04%NM 22.55%64.2%2026-09-09 16:50