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Newells Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield BA
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Newells Old Boys (Local)
Predicción 32.84%3.05momio equitativo
EV +1.79%
Ventaja +0.578%
Kelly +0.853%
Crecimiento +0.015%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.08%32.63%32.93%34.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.622.842.853.1038.17%35.25%35.09%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante)
Predicción 35.18%2.84momio equitativo
EV -3.26%
Ventaja -1.19%
Kelly -1.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.54%35.41%35.14%38.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.582.642.7544.44%38.80%37.88%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.99%3.13momio equitativo
EV -2.44%
Ventaja -0.801%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.39%31.96%31.93%32.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.902.903.0537.04%34.47%34.48%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Newells Old Boys (Local): 32.84%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante): 35.18%; Empate: 31.99%. Para Newells Old Boys (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.05. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.79%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV +1.79%E +0.578%K +0.853%G +0.015% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -15.57%E -6.49%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV +1.79%E +0.578%K +0.853%G +0.015% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -15.57%E -6.49%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.15%EV +0.478%E +0.156%K +0.232%G +0.001% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -7.13%E -2.70%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 23:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.15%EV +0.478%E +0.156%K +0.232%G +0.001% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -7.13%E -2.70%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 23:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.15%EV +0.478%E +0.156%K +0.232%G +0.001% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.10%EV -7.13%E -2.70%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-08 12:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV +0.149%E +0.049%K +0.073%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.65%EV -16.27%E -6.84%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.55%EV -3.79%E -1.29%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.77%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 07:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.42%EV -3.79%E -1.29%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -4.31%E -1.59%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.65%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -4.78%E -1.65%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.67%EV -19.79%E -8.68%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.93%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -4.78%E -1.65%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.67%EV -19.79%E -8.68%K -15.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.93%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -5.43%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.96%EV -6.07%E -2.27%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.63%EV -8.52%E -2.98%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.22%EV -5.43%E -1.89%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -20.85%E -9.27%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.09%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.76%E -2.01%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-09 02:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-09 08:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.65%EV -4.31%E -1.59%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.60%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 07:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.65%EV -4.31%E -1.59%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.60%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 16:03 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-08 23:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-09 02:51 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-08 23:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -6.42%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.88%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 02:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -8.06%E -2.88%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 06:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -8.06%E -2.88%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -8.54%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-07 12:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-08 23:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -2.44%E -0.801%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-08 23:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-08 23:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.75%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-08 23:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -9.70%E -3.53%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-08 23:13 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.56%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-09 12:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-08 23:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-07 12:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -11.35%E -4.50%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -13.64%E -5.05%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-09 11:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.50%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.82%EV -13.81%E -5.64%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 31.68%EV -11.40%E -4.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-07 12:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -11.34%E -4.20%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.21%EV -15.57%E -6.49%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.60%EV -12.04%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-09-07 20:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.02%EV -12.99%E -4.90%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.72%EV -13.81%E -5.64%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.26%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-07 12:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -13.64%E -5.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -7.88%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-08 23:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -13.97%E -5.33%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-08 23:09 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 33.00% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.96% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 32.04% | 0.0% | 2026-09-09 07:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.43% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 35.98% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59% | 10.3% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.34% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 35.93% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.73% | 13.1% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.34% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 35.93% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.73% | 13.1% | 2026-09-09 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 21.59% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 55.86% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 22.55% | 64.2% | 2026-09-09 16:50 |