Language:English
Independiente Rivadavia v Union Santa Fe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente Rivadavia (Local)
Prediction 42.99%2.33fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.97%42.98%42.96%46.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.142.152.2549.50%46.66%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Union Santa Fe (Visit)
Prediction 26.21%3.82fair odd
EV +6.93%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +2.25%
Growth +0.156%
assuming max odds 4.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%26.32%26.20%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.513.504.0832.26%28.47%28.57%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.80%3.25fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.451%
Kelly -0.656%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%30.70%30.84%31.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.033.053.2036.36%33.05%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 42.99%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 26.21%; Draw: 30.80%. For Union Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.12%EV -10.57%E -5.08%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.51%EV +6.93%E +1.70%K +2.25%G +0.156% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.36%EV -2.67%E -0.846%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 00:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.17%EV -3.70%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -3.03%E -0.820%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.70%EV -2.98%E -0.947%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-10 00:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.13%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.34%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 21:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.13%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.34%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 21:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.13%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.34%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 21:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.34%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 00:18 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.19%EV -7.99%E -3.74%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.55%EV -1.44%E -0.451%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.19%EV -7.99%E -3.74%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.55%EV -1.44%E -0.451%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 16:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-09 16:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -8.85%E -4.18%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -2.98%E -0.947%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 22:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.95%EV -6.70%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.18%EV -6.70%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.86%EV -6.99%E -2.31%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -3.27%E -1.45%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 00:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -3.27%E -1.45%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-10 00:08 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -11.43%E -5.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -11.43%E -5.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-09 22:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.24%EV -12.29%E -6.03%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.58%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 00:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-10 00:18 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-09 16:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-09 22:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.94%EV -10.57%E -5.08%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-10 00:03 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -12.20%E -3.64%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-10 00:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -13.52%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-10 00:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -11.86%E -5.79%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -13.52%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -13.76%E -4.92%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-10 00:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.86%E -5.79%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -14.83%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-09 16:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.00%EV -13.15%E -6.51%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -14.83%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.27%EV -11.61%E -4.04%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-10 00:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -18.76%E -6.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -15.30%E -5.56%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-09 20:38 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.03% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93% | 1.0% | 2026-05-10 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 00:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.24% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.24% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.09% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70% | 1.8% | 2026-05-10 00:19 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.17% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36% | 2.0% | 2026-05-09 23:29 |