La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Independiente Rivadavia v Union Santa Fe
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Independiente Rivadavia (Local)
Predicción 42.99%2.33momio equitativo
EV -3.27%
Ventaja -1.45%
Kelly -2.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.97%42.98%42.96%46.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.022.142.152.2549.50%46.66%46.51%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Union Santa Fe (Visitante)
Predicción 26.21%3.82momio equitativo
EV +6.93%
Ventaja +1.70%
Kelly +2.25%
Crecimiento +0.156%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.08
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.51%26.32%26.20%27.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.513.504.0832.26%28.47%28.57%24.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 30.80%3.25momio equitativo
EV -1.44%
Ventaja -0.451%
Kelly -0.656%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.52%30.70%30.84%31.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.033.053.2036.36%33.05%32.79%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.12%EV -10.57%E -5.08%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.51%EV +6.93%E +1.70%K +2.25%G +0.156% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.36%EV -2.67%E -0.846%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 00:15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.17%EV -3.70%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -3.03%E -0.820%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.70%EV -2.98%E -0.947%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-10 00:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.13%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.34%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 21:34 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.13%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.34%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 21:35 |
| BetAnything | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.70%EV -4.13%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.34%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 21:34 |
| Bovada | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.34%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 00:18 |
| FanDuel | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Unibet | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.19%EV -7.99%E -3.74%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.55%EV -1.44%E -0.451%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.19%EV -7.99%E -3.74%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.55%EV -1.44%E -0.451%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 16:24 |
| DraftKings | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Everygame | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| theScore Bet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-09 16:24 |
| BetRivers | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -8.85%E -4.18%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -2.98%E -0.947%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| SportsBet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 22:49 |
| BetMGM | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.65%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 19:14 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.95%EV -6.70%E -3.09%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.18%EV -6.70%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.86%EV -6.99%E -2.31%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| NordicBet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -3.27%E -1.45%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 00:14 |
| Betsson | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -3.27%E -1.45%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-10 00:08 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -11.43%E -5.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-10 00:10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -11.43%E -5.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.27%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-09 22:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.24%EV -12.29%E -6.03%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -9.58%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.59%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Betway | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 00:24 |
| PlayUp | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| betfred_uk | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-10 00:18 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.60%E -2.53%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-09 16:24 |
| Sky Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-09 22:49 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.94%EV -10.57%E -5.08%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-10 00:03 |
| Bet Right | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.56%E -3.52%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -12.20%E -3.64%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -4.52%E -1.46%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-10 00:19 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -13.52%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-10 00:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -11.86%E -5.79%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -13.52%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -13.76%E -4.92%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-10 00:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.86%E -5.79%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -14.83%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-09 16:24 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.00%EV -13.15%E -6.51%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -14.83%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.27%EV -11.61%E -4.04%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-10 00:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -9.71%E -4.63%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -18.76%E -6.05%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -15.30%E -5.56%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-09 20:38 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.03% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93% | 1.0% | 2026-05-10 00:25 |
| Smarkets | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 00:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.24% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.24% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.09% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70% | 1.8% | 2026-05-10 00:19 |
| Kalshi | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.17% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36% | 2.0% | 2026-05-09 23:29 |