Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia v Atlético Huracán

Kickoff: 2026-07-30 22:00 UTC

Final: Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Atlético Huracán

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 45.91%2.18fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.45%46.22%45.95%49.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.812.002.002.1255.25%50.08%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Huracán (Visit)

Prediction 22.03%4.54fair odd
EV +6.84%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.78%
Growth +0.121%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.91%21.87%22.02%23.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.274.204.8525.64%23.40%23.81%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.06%3.12fair odd
EV +0.993%
Edge +0.315%
Kelly +0.462%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.76%31.91%32.03%32.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.903.1536.36%34.17%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 45.91%; Atlético Huracán (Visit): 22.03%; Draw: 32.06%. For Atlético Huracán (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.54. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.53%EV -8.64%E -4.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.91%EV +6.84%E +1.41%K +1.78%G +0.121%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.56%EV -1.89%E -0.619%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-30 21:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.53%EV -8.64%E -4.34%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.91%EV +6.84%E +1.41%K +1.78%G +0.121%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.56%EV -1.89%E -0.619%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-30 21:44
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.81%EV -12.77%E -6.72%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV +3.53%E +0.752%K +0.955%G +0.034%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV +0.993%E +0.315%K +0.462%G +0.005%5.7%2026-07-30 21:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.95%EV -13.23%E -7.00%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.09%EV +3.53%E +0.752%K +0.955%G +0.034%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV +0.993%E +0.315%K +0.462%G +0.005%5.9%2026-07-30 21:50
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.96%EV -5.42%E -2.63%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.80%EV +2.43%E +0.523%K +0.666%G +0.016%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.24%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-30 21:50
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.00%EV -9.10%E -4.59%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.53%EV +1.99%E +0.430%K +0.548%G +0.011%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.47%EV -3.18%E -1.05%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-30 21:47
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -13.69%E -7.28%K -15.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV +1.33%E +0.289%K +0.369%G +0.005%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV +0.993%E +0.315%K +0.462%G +0.005%6.7%2026-07-30 21:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -15.98%E -8.73%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -0.873%E -0.194%K -0.250%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.25%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-30 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -15.98%E -8.73%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -0.873%E -0.194%K -0.250%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.25%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-30 21:50
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.02%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.44%EV -3.08%E -0.699%K -0.905%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-30 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.64%EV -16.90%E -9.34%K -20.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.42%EV -3.08%E -0.699%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-30 21:44
BetAnything🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -4.18%E -0.960%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-30 21:54
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.80%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-30 21:55
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -10.47%E -5.37%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.68%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-30 21:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.95%EV -5.28%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-30 21:54
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -5.28%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-30 21:50
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -5.28%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-30 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.68%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.03%EV -6.38%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-30 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.92%EV -6.80%E -3.35%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -6.38%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 21:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -3.59%E -1.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.48%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-30 21:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -7.48%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-30 21:50
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -7.48%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-30 21:49
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.48%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-30 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.48%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-30 21:55
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.00%EV -2.67%E -1.26%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.99%EV -8.58%E -2.07%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -4.46%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 21:50
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.00%EV -2.67%E -1.26%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.99%EV -8.58%E -2.07%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -4.46%E -1.50%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.20%EV -13.23%E -7.00%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.50%EV -8.58%E -2.07%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-30 21:49
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -3.59%E -1.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -9.68%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-30 21:55
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.21%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -9.68%E -2.36%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-30 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.17%EV -11.39%E -5.90%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.00%EV -10.79%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-30 21:53
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -4.51%E -2.17%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-30 21:49
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-30 21:55
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-30 21:45
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-30 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.92%EV -9.10%E -4.59%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-30 21:55
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -11.89%E -2.97%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-30 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.04%EV -10.93%E -5.64%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.61%EV -12.99%E -3.29%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.34%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-30 21:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.78%EV -11.85%E -6.17%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.25%EV -12.99%E -3.29%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.96%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-30 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.16%EV -14.09%E -3.61%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.69%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-30 21:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.03%0.7%2026-07-30 21:55
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.50%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.69%1.0%2026-07-30 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.15%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.47%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%1.3%2026-07-30 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.15%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.47%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%1.3%2026-07-30 21:55
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 45.90%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.35%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74%1.8%2026-07-30 21:55