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Independiente Rivadavia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata

2026-09-12 17:45 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 63.80%1.57fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -3.76%
Kelly -11.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.55%63.80%63.80%63.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.461.461.4869.44%68.49%68.49%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit)

Prediction 12.59%7.94fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -0.743%
Kelly -0.857%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.59%12.59%12.59%14.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.007.257.5016.67%14.29%13.79%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.61%4.24fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%23.61%23.61%24.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.904.0028.57%26.14%25.64%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 63.80%; Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit): 12.59%; Draw: 23.61%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.57. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.48, with an expected value of -5.57%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.57%E -0.743%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 22:05
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.57%E -0.743%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 22:03
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.12%E -5.64%K -18.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.87%E -1.70%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 22:05
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.55%EV -8.12%E -5.64%K -18.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.53%EV -24.46%E -4.08%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -17.38%E -4.96%K -6.95%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-29 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.