Language:English
Gimnasia Mendoza v Boca Juniors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)
Prediction 29.89%3.35fair odd
EV +56.92%
Edge +10.84%
Kelly +13.39%
Growth +7.62%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.00%29.19%29.91%31.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.923.193.105.2534.25%31.30%32.26%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Boca Juniors (Visit)
Prediction 38.83%2.58fair odd
EV +0.970%
Edge +0.373%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%39.62%38.86%53.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.772.342.332.6056.50%42.78%42.92%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.28%3.20fair odd
EV +3.21%
Edge +0.972%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.045%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.63%31.19%31.23%33.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.3036.36%33.67%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 29.89%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 38.83%; Draw: 31.28%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +56.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV +56.92%E +10.84%K +13.39%G +7.62% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.38%EV -31.26%E -17.66%K -40.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV +3.21%E +0.972%K +1.39%G +0.045% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 17:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%EV +3.12%E +0.905%K +1.27%G +0.040% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.06%EV -5.24%E -2.15%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.32%EV -10.55%E -3.69%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.77%EV -2.14%E -0.848%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 15:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.77%EV -2.14%E -0.848%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 15:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 19:33 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 08:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.99%EV -6.02%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.98%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 20:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.52%E -4.08%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.52%E -4.08%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 01:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 08:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 08:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 08:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 11:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.88%EV -4.95%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.01%EV -2.91%E -1.17%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.10%EV -7.43%E -2.51%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 08:02 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.07%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -8.36%E -2.85%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-03 08:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 09:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 09:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 08:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.26%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-03 20:23 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.11%EV -15.34%E -7.04%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -12.43%E -4.44%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.970%E +0.373%K +0.606%G +0.006% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -7.57%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 08:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-04 10:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.57%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 17:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.76%EV -11.23%E -3.78%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.10%EV -9.90%E -4.27%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.14%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -11.82%E -4.01%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.93%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.12%EV -12.72%E -4.36%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.91%EV -9.90%E -4.27%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.68% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.20% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.64% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.20% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.64% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.65% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.92% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |