Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gimnasia Mendoza v Boca Juniors

Início: 2026-09-05 19:30 UTC

Final: Gimnasia Mendoza 2–2 Boca Juniors

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

35 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Previsão 29.89%3.35odd justa
EV +56.92%
Vantagem +10.84%
Kelly +13.39%
Crescimento +7.62%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.00%29.19%29.91%31.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.923.193.105.2534.25%31.30%32.26%19.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Boca Juniors (Visitante)

Previsão 38.83%2.58odd justa
EV +0.970%
Vantagem +0.373%
Kelly +0.606%
Crescimento +0.006%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
36.59%39.62%38.86%53.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.772.342.332.6056.50%42.78%42.92%38.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 31.28%3.20odd justa
EV +3.21%
Vantagem +0.972%
Kelly +1.39%
Crescimento +0.045%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.63%31.19%31.23%33.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.973.003.3036.36%33.67%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 29.89%; Boca Juniors (Visitante): 38.83%; Empate: 31.28%. Para Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.35. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +56.92%.

Odds das casas de apostas (35 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV +56.92%E +10.84%K +13.39%G +7.62%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.38%EV -31.26%E -17.66%K -40.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV +3.21%E +0.972%K +1.39%G +0.045%5.8%2026-08-31 17:09
Pinnacle🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%EV +3.12%E +0.905%K +1.27%G +0.040%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.06%EV -5.24%E -2.15%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.32%EV -10.55%E -3.69%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 14:45
LowVig.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.77%EV -2.14%E -0.848%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 15:49
BetAnything🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.77%EV -2.14%E -0.848%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 15:50
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 19:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 08:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.99%EV -6.02%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.98%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 20:30
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.52%E -4.08%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 01:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.52%E -4.08%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 01:05
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 08:53
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 20:25
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 01:00
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 08:54
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 08:55
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 11:10
1xBet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.88%EV -4.95%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.01%EV -2.91%E -1.17%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.10%EV -7.43%E -2.51%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:29
theScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 20:25
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:02
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.07%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -8.36%E -2.85%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-03 08:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 01:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 01:00
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 09:15
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 09:14
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 08:39
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.26%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 20:23
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.11%EV -15.34%E -7.04%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -12.43%E -4.44%K -6.91%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-04 01:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.970%E +0.373%K +0.606%G +0.006%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 08:05
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -7.57%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:04
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 10:10
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.57%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 17:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 29.76%EV -11.23%E -3.78%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.10%EV -9.90%E -4.27%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.14%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -8.00%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -11.82%E -4.01%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.93%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-03 20:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 30.12%EV -12.72%E -4.36%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.91%EV -9.90%E -4.27%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -8.00%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-04 09:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.68%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66%1.0%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.20%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.20%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06%2.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.65%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.92%4.3%2026-09-04 14:35