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Gimnasia Mendoza v Boca Juniors
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)
Predicción 29.89%3.35momio equitativo
EV +56.92%
Ventaja +10.84%
Kelly +13.39%
Crecimiento +7.62%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.00%29.19%29.91%31.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.923.193.105.2534.25%31.30%32.26%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Boca Juniors (Visitante)
Predicción 38.83%2.58momio equitativo
EV +0.970%
Ventaja +0.373%
Kelly +0.606%
Crecimiento +0.006%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.59%39.62%38.86%53.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.772.342.332.6056.50%42.78%42.92%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.28%3.20momio equitativo
EV +3.21%
Ventaja +0.972%
Kelly +1.39%
Crecimiento +0.045%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.63%31.19%31.23%33.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.973.003.3036.36%33.67%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 29.89%; Boca Juniors (Visitante): 38.83%; Empate: 31.28%. Para Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.35. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +56.92%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV +56.92%E +10.84%K +13.39%G +7.62% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.38%EV -31.26%E -17.66%K -40.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV +3.21%E +0.972%K +1.39%G +0.045% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 17:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%EV +3.12%E +0.905%K +1.27%G +0.040% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.06%EV -5.24%E -2.15%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.32%EV -10.55%E -3.69%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 14:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.77%EV -2.14%E -0.848%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 15:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.77%EV -2.14%E -0.848%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 15:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 19:33 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -1.36%E -0.413%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 08:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.99%EV -6.02%E -2.49%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.98%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 20:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.52%E -4.08%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.52%E -4.08%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 01:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 08:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 08:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 08:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 11:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.88%EV -4.95%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.01%EV -2.91%E -1.17%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.10%EV -7.43%E -2.51%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -5.85%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.74%E -2.62%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.74%E -3.72%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 08:02 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.07%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -8.36%E -2.85%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-03 08:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -14.56%E -6.62%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 09:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 09:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -4.61%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 08:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.26%EV -10.68%E -4.64%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -9.30%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-03 20:23 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -8.84%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.11%EV -15.34%E -7.04%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -12.43%E -4.44%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-04 01:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.970%E +0.373%K +0.606%G +0.006% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -7.57%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -3.05%E -0.983%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 08:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.80%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-04 10:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.57%E -3.18%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 17:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.76%EV -11.23%E -3.78%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.10%EV -9.90%E -4.27%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.14%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -11.82%E -4.01%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -12.62%E -5.61%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.93%EV -10.87%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.12%EV -12.72%E -4.36%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.91%EV -9.90%E -4.27%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.68% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.20% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.64% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.20% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.64% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.65% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.92% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |