Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gimnasia La Plata v River Plate

Início: 2026-07-29 22:15 UTC

Final: Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 River Plate

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

39 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gimnasia La Plata (Local)

Previsão 21.91%4.56odd justa
EV +10.87%
Vantagem +2.15%
Kelly +2.68%
Crescimento +0.291%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.06

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.95%21.85%21.96%23.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.904.304.305.0625.64%23.23%23.26%19.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

River Plate (Visitante)

Previsão 47.27%2.12odd justa
EV -3.57%
Vantagem -1.75%
Kelly -3.44%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.51%47.39%47.26%50.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.781.941.952.0456.18%51.45%51.28%49.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.82%3.24odd justa
EV -1.37%
Vantagem -0.429%
Kelly -0.625%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.48%30.76%30.77%32.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.033.003.2035.71%32.96%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Gimnasia La Plata (Local): 21.91%; River Plate (Visitante): 47.27%; Empate: 30.82%. Para Gimnasia La Plata (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.56. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.06, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +10.87%.

Odds das casas de apostas (39 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯5.06I 19.76%NM 18.95%EV +10.87%E +2.15%K +2.68%G +0.291%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.43%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.62%EV -9.39%E -3.19%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-29 22:05
Unibet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +2.99%E +0.635%K +0.807%G +0.024%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -11.61%E -6.21%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -1.37%E -0.429%K -0.625%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 21:50
Unibet (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +2.99%E +0.635%K +0.807%G +0.024%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -11.61%E -6.21%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -1.37%E -0.429%K -0.625%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 21:50
BetRivers🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +2.99%E +0.635%K +0.807%G +0.024%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -11.61%E -6.21%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -1.37%E -0.429%K -0.625%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 21:50
Pinnacle🎯4.53I 22.08%NM 21.36%EV -0.738%E -0.163%K -0.209%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.43%EV -3.57%E -1.75%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-29 22:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -1.40%E -0.310%K -0.399%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -14.92%E -8.29%K -18.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-29 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -1.40%E -0.310%K -0.399%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -14.92%E -8.29%K -18.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-29 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -1.40%E -0.310%K -0.399%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.53%EV -15.86%E -8.91%K -20.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-29 21:50
Betsson🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -2.49%E -0.560%K -0.722%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.92%E -0.925%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-29 21:55
NordicBet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -2.49%E -0.560%K -0.722%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.92%E -0.925%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-29 21:29
LowVig.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.58%EV -4.05%E -1.99%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -2.30%E -0.725%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-29 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.58%EV -4.05%E -1.99%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -2.30%E -0.725%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-29 17:30
BetAnything🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.58%EV -4.05%E -1.99%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -2.30%E -0.725%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-29 17:30
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-29 21:40
SportsBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 21:40
Bovada🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-29 22:10
Everygame🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-29 22:05
Marathon Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -5.12%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.58%EV -7.36%E -3.75%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.88%EV -6.92%E -2.29%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 22:10
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -5.78%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.39%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-29 21:50
DraftKings🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -5.78%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.39%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-29 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -5.78%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.03%EV -4.99%E -2.48%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-29 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.87%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.79%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-29 21:55
PlayUp🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%EV -6.87%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.42%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-29 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-29 17:25
theScore Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-29 21:50
Betway🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 22:00
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-29 21:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-29 22:00
NetBet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.59%EV -12.56%E -6.79%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.44%EV -13.70%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-29 22:10
Unibet (FR)🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 21.56%EV -9.06%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.11%EV -12.08%E -6.50%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-29 21:55
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -10.16%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.67%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-29 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.04%EV -11.26%E -2.78%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.97%EV -10.19%E -5.36%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.99%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-29 21:53
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.35%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-29 21:55
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.35%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-29 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.35%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.91%EV -8.30%E -4.28%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-29 21:55
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -12.35%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.71%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-29 21:40
Bet Right🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -13.45%E -3.40%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.75%EV -7.36%E -3.75%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-29 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -14.54%E -3.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-29 22:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.97%EV -14.54%E -3.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.66%EV -9.25%E -4.82%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-29 21:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%0.6%2026-07-29 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%0.6%2026-07-29 22:10
Smarkets4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-07-29 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-07-29 22:10
Kalshi4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44%2.0%2026-07-29 22:10