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Gimnasia La Plata v River Plate
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Gimnasia La Plata (Local)
Predicción 21.91%4.56momio equitativo
EV +10.87%
Ventaja +2.15%
Kelly +2.68%
Crecimiento +0.291%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.06
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.95%21.85%21.96%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.304.305.0625.64%23.23%23.26%19.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
River Plate (Visitante)
Predicción 47.27%2.12momio equitativo
EV -3.57%
Ventaja -1.75%
Kelly -3.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.04
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.51%47.39%47.26%50.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.941.952.0456.18%51.45%51.28%49.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 30.82%3.24momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.429%
Kelly -0.625%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.48%30.76%30.77%32.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.033.003.2035.71%32.96%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gimnasia La Plata (Local): 21.91%; River Plate (Visitante): 47.27%; Empate: 30.82%. Para Gimnasia La Plata (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.56. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.06, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.87%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.06I 19.76%NM 18.95%EV +10.87%E +2.15%K +2.68%G +0.291% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.43%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.62%EV -9.39%E -3.19%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-29 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +2.99%E +0.635%K +0.807%G +0.024% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -11.61%E -6.21%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -1.37%E -0.429%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 21:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +2.99%E +0.635%K +0.807%G +0.024% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -11.61%E -6.21%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -1.37%E -0.429%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 21:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +2.99%E +0.635%K +0.807%G +0.024% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -11.61%E -6.21%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -1.37%E -0.429%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 21:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.53I 22.08%NM 21.36%EV -0.738%E -0.163%K -0.209%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.43%EV -3.57%E -1.75%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -1.40%E -0.310%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -14.92%E -8.29%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-29 21:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -1.40%E -0.310%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -14.92%E -8.29%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-29 21:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -1.40%E -0.310%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.53%EV -15.86%E -8.91%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-29 21:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -2.49%E -0.560%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.92%E -0.925%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-29 21:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -2.49%E -0.560%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.92%E -0.925%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-29 21:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.58%EV -4.05%E -1.99%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -2.30%E -0.725%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-29 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.58%EV -4.05%E -1.99%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -2.30%E -0.725%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-29 17:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.58%EV -4.05%E -1.99%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.47%EV -2.30%E -0.725%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-29 17:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 21:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-29 21:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -3.59%E -0.815%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-29 22:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -5.12%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.58%EV -7.36%E -3.75%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.88%EV -6.92%E -2.29%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -5.78%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.39%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 21:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -5.78%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.39%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 21:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -5.78%E -1.34%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.03%EV -4.99%E -2.48%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 21:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.87%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.79%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 21:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%EV -6.87%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.42%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 21:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 22:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-29 21:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-29 22:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -7.97%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.59%EV -12.56%E -6.79%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.44%EV -13.70%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.56%EV -9.06%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.11%EV -12.08%E -6.50%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-29 21:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -10.16%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.67%EV -6.41%E -3.24%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-29 22:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.04%EV -11.26%E -2.78%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.97%EV -10.19%E -5.36%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.99%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-29 21:53 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.35%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-29 21:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.35%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-29 19:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -12.35%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.91%EV -8.30%E -4.28%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-29 21:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -12.35%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.71%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-29 21:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -13.45%E -3.40%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.75%EV -7.36%E -3.75%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -14.54%E -3.73%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -7.83%E -4.01%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.97%EV -14.54%E -3.73%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.66%EV -9.25%E -4.82%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-29 21:55 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06% | 0.6% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06% | 0.6% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.50% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44% | 1.1% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92% | 1.1% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44% | 2.0% | 2026-07-29 22:10 |