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Defensa y Justicia v Boca Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 31.21%3.20fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.442%
Kelly +0.639%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.24%31.22%31.18%32.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.2536.36%33.66%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 36.06%2.77fair odd
EV -0.461%
Edge -0.167%
Kelly -0.262%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.09%36.14%38.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.552.592.7644.44%39.22%38.61%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.72%3.06fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.67%32.69%32.68%33.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.832.852.9538.02%35.34%35.09%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 31.21%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 36.06%; Draw: 32.72%. For Defensa y Justicia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54%EV +1.44%E +0.442%K +0.639%G +0.009%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.78%EV -5.87%E -2.25%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.68%EV -6.74%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-23 22:55
Pinnacle🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 31.03%EV -2.62%E -0.840%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.47%EV -1.54%E -0.565%K -0.892%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.50%EV -5.43%E -1.88%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 22:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.11I 32.15%NM 30.62%EV -2.93%E -0.943%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.21%EV -5.15%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.18%EV -6.08%E -2.12%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 22:55
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.24%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -6.74%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:55
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -3.24%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -8.04%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 22:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -3.24%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -8.04%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 22:49
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -8.04%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -3.46%E -1.17%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 22:44
Everygame🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 22:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.72%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.05%EV -6.59%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.23%EV -8.05%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 22:55
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 22:54
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 22:49
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -2.63%E -0.972%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 22:46
BetAnything🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -2.63%E -0.972%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 22:50
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 22:54
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -5.76%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 22:55
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.29%EV -7.72%E -2.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 22:49
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 22:54
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -9.84%E -3.94%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -5.76%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 22:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.64%E -4.75%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 22:49
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -11.64%E -4.75%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 22:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 29.24%EV -7.30%E -2.46%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.60%EV -18.85%E -8.38%K -15.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.16%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-23 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -7.93%E -2.69%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.94%EV -12.36%E -5.09%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.64%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-23 22:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.74%EV -9.17%E -3.15%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.52%EV -0.461%E -0.167%K -0.262%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.74%EV -4.77%E -1.64%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 22:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.19%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -5.51%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.19%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 22:44
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 22:54
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 22:49
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.84%E -3.94%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 22:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -13.44%E -5.60%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 22:54
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -11.64%E -4.75%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -11.65%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 22:55
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.25%EV -10.11%E -3.51%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 22:45
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -10.11%E -3.51%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.84%E -3.94%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -5.76%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 22:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.01%EV -10.11%E -3.51%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.75%EV -12.36%E -5.09%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.24%EV -9.35%E -3.38%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 22:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -10.11%E -3.51%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -17.05%E -7.41%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -13.94%E -5.30%K -8.55%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-23 22:54
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -11.05%E -3.88%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -8.04%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -11.05%E -3.88%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.31%EV -9.84%E -3.94%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -6.74%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 22:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.61%E -4.50%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -9.84%E -3.94%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -6.74%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -14.17%E -5.15%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.42%EV -13.44%E -5.60%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.79%EV -10.01%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-23 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%0.7%2026-04-23 22:55
Matchbook◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%0.7%2026-04-23 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-04-23 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-04-23 22:55
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.67%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.62%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.71%1.9%2026-04-23 22:55
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.18%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.1%2026-04-23 22:55