The School of Odds
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CA Tigre BA v River Plate

2026-08-09 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Tigre BA (Local)

Prediction 29.18%3.43fair odd
EV +0.378%
Edge +0.110%
Kelly +0.155%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.37%29.18%29.18%30.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.113.083.4435.71%32.16%32.52%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 39.50%2.53fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -3.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.36%39.50%39.50%41.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.262.4047.62%44.42%44.15%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.32%3.19fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%31.32%31.32%32.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.853.0537.04%35.01%35.09%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet3.44I 29.07%NM 27.63%EV +0.378%E +0.110%K +0.155%G +0.001%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.93%EV -5.99%E -2.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.44%EV -8.23%E -2.81%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 21:30
Codere (IT)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -2.25%E -0.671%K -0.957%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -9.94%E -4.36%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-29 21:20
Unibet (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 27.53%EV -8.08%E -2.57%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.34%EV -15.08%E -7.01%K -13.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.12%EV -15.44%E -5.72%K -9.08%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-29 21:20
Betclic (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 27.37%EV -8.08%E -2.57%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.05%EV -17.05%E -8.12%K -15.50%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 31.58%EV -14.50%E -5.31%K -8.38%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-29 21:19
Winamax (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -9.54%E -3.08%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.63%EV -15.08%E -7.01%K -13.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -12.30%E -4.39%K -6.84%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-29 21:20
SportsBet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -11.00%E -3.61%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -4.47%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-30 00:00
Winamax (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 28.08%EV -11.00%E -3.61%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.78%EV -17.05%E -8.12%K -15.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.14%EV -13.87%E -5.04%K -7.93%G +0.000%16.8%2026-07-29 21:20
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -12.46%E -4.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.20%E -2.17%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-29 23:59
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.46%E -4.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.15%E -3.98%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -9.17%E -3.16%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-30 00:00
Sky Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -18.30%E -6.53%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -11.13%E -4.94%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -12.30%E -4.39%K -6.84%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-30 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 21:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 21:45