Language:English
Boca Juniors v Velez Sarsfield BA
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boca Juniors (Local)
Prediction 58.02%1.72fair odd
EV +8.50%
Edge +4.55%
Kelly +9.77%
Growth +0.831%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.79%57.97%57.96%59.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.601.601.8766.67%62.43%62.50%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)
Prediction 15.49%6.45fair odd
EV +4.26%
Edge +0.633%
Kelly +0.744%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 6.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.32%15.51%15.55%19.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.825.956.006.7320.75%16.80%16.67%14.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.49%3.78fair odd
EV +0.645%
Edge +0.170%
Kelly +0.230%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.35%26.52%26.49%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.223.463.503.8031.06%28.86%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 58.02%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 15.49%; Draw: 26.49%. For Boca Juniors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV +8.50%E +4.55%K +9.77%G +0.831% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 19.71%EV -25.33%E -5.25%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.50%EV -14.72%E -4.57%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 12:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -2.52%E -1.50%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -16.34%E -3.03%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.05%EV -4.26%E -2.58%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 21:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.05%EV -4.26%E -2.58%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 21:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.76%EV -4.84%E -2.95%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.73I 14.86%NM 14.32%EV +4.26%E +0.633%K +0.744%G +0.032% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.92%EV -5.18%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.64%EV -4.84%E -2.95%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.29I 15.90%NM 15.29%EV -2.55%E -0.406%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.06%EV -2.27%E -0.615%K -0.843%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.78%EV -5.42%E -3.33%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.47%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 15.17%EV -1.62%E -0.256%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.35%EV +0.645%E +0.170%K +0.230%G +0.001% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 21:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.47%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 15.17%EV -1.62%E -0.256%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.35%EV +0.645%E +0.170%K +0.230%G +0.001% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 21:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 21:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.93%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 21:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 21:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 21:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-08 22:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.65%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.96%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%EV -11.27%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.01%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.58%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.58%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.37%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV -3.17%E -0.508%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 21:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.01%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 21:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-08 21:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.04%EV -8.32%E -5.27%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -1.62%E -0.256%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.73%EV -8.32%E -5.27%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -8.90%E -5.67%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -8.90%E -5.67%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 22:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -8.90%E -5.67%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-08 21:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -8.90%E -5.67%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.44%EV -9.49%E -6.08%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -16.34%E -3.03%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-08 21:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.73%EV -10.07%E -6.49%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.71%EV -11.27%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.09%EV -10.07%E -6.49%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.09%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.82%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-08 22:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.19%EV -11.23%E -7.34%K -21.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.84%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.19%EV -11.23%E -7.34%K -21.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.84%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.51%EV -11.81%E -7.77%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV -10.15%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 57.97%EV -12.39%E -8.20%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.09%EV -10.15%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.75%EV -12.97%E -8.64%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.94%EV -8.60%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%EV -11.27%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-08 22:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.79% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.79% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.79% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.81% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 1.9% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.72% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.42% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.86% | 2.0% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.