Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors v Velez Sarsfield BA

2026-08-09 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 52.16%1.92fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.29%52.16%52.16%52.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.731.741.8460.98%57.70%57.47%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)

Prediction 18.60%5.38fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -0.633%
Kelly -0.784%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.84%18.60%18.60%20.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.704.705.2023.81%21.26%21.28%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.24%3.42fair odd
EV -4.97%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.71%29.24%29.24%29.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.093.083.2533.90%32.38%32.52%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 51.69%EV -4.02%E -2.19%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 18.87%EV -6.27%E -1.24%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.44%EV -5.55%E -1.72%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 21:30
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.84%EV -6.11%E -3.39%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -10.73%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -4.97%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 21:45
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -6.11%E -3.39%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -10.73%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -6.43%E -2.01%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-29 21:44
Codere (IT)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.20%E -4.66%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.84%EV -3.29%E -0.633%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.45%EV -7.89%E -2.50%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-29 21:50
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -8.72%E -4.98%K -11.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.35%E -3.02%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-29 21:45
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -9.76%E -5.64%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -21.89%E -5.21%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.00%EV -12.28%E -4.09%K -6.14%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-29 21:45
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.19%EV -12.37%E -7.36%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.06%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -10.81%E -3.55%K -5.28%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-29 21:49
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.04%EV -12.89%E -7.72%K -19.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.49%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.46%EV -13.74%E -4.66%K -7.05%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-29 21:49
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 52.02%EV -13.41%E -8.08%K -20.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.19%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.79%EV -12.28%E -4.09%K -6.14%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-29 21:50
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 52.50%EV -14.46%E -8.81%K -22.59%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.32%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.18%EV -13.74%E -4.66%K -7.05%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-29 21:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 21:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-29 21:45