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Boca Juniors v Velez Sarsfield BA
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Boca Juniors (Local)
Predicción 58.02%1.72momio equitativo
EV +8.50%
Ventaja +4.55%
Kelly +9.77%
Crecimiento +0.831%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.79%57.97%57.96%59.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.601.601.8766.67%62.43%62.50%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante)
Predicción 15.49%6.45momio equitativo
EV +4.26%
Ventaja +0.633%
Kelly +0.744%
Crecimiento +0.032%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.73
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.32%15.51%15.55%19.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.825.956.006.7320.75%16.80%16.67%14.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 26.49%3.78momio equitativo
EV +0.645%
Ventaja +0.170%
Kelly +0.230%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.35%26.52%26.49%29.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.223.463.503.8031.06%28.86%28.57%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Boca Juniors (Local): 58.02%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante): 15.49%; Empate: 26.49%. Para Boca Juniors (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.72. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.87, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.50%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV +8.50%E +4.55%K +9.77%G +0.831% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 19.71%EV -25.33%E -5.25%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.50%EV -14.72%E -4.57%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 12:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -2.52%E -1.50%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -16.34%E -3.03%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.05%EV -4.26%E -2.58%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 21:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.05%EV -4.26%E -2.58%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-08 21:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.76%EV -4.84%E -2.95%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.73I 14.86%NM 14.32%EV +4.26%E +0.633%K +0.744%G +0.032% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.92%EV -5.18%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.64%EV -4.84%E -2.95%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.29I 15.90%NM 15.29%EV -2.55%E -0.406%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.06%EV -2.27%E -0.615%K -0.843%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.78%EV -5.42%E -3.33%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.47%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 15.17%EV -1.62%E -0.256%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.35%EV +0.645%E +0.170%K +0.230%G +0.001% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 21:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.47%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 15.17%EV -1.62%E -0.256%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.35%EV +0.645%E +0.170%K +0.230%G +0.001% | 3.8% | 2026-08-08 21:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 21:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.93%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 21:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 21:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 21:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-08 22:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.65%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.96%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%EV -11.27%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 21:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.01%EV -6.00%E -3.71%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 21:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.58%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.58%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.37%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV -3.17%E -0.508%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 21:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.01%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 21:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -7.16%E -4.48%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-08 21:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.04%EV -8.32%E -5.27%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -1.62%E -0.256%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.73%EV -8.32%E -5.27%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -5.98%E -1.68%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -8.90%E -5.67%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -4.65%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -8.90%E -5.67%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.30%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 22:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -8.90%E -5.67%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-08 21:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -8.90%E -5.67%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-08 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.44%EV -9.49%E -6.08%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -16.34%E -3.03%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-08 21:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.73%EV -10.07%E -6.49%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.71%EV -11.27%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.09%EV -10.07%E -6.49%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.09%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.82%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-08 22:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.19%EV -11.23%E -7.34%K -21.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.84%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.19%EV -11.23%E -7.34%K -21.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.84%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.60%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.51%EV -11.81%E -7.77%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV -10.15%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -9.95%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 57.97%EV -12.39%E -8.20%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.09%EV -10.15%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -13.92%E -4.28%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.75%EV -12.97%E -8.64%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.94%EV -8.60%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.31%EV -11.27%E -3.37%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-08 22:04 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.79% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.79% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.79% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.81% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 1.9% | 2026-08-08 22:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.72% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.42% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.86% | 2.0% | 2026-08-08 22:10 |