Banfield v Sarmiento de Junin

2026-07-28 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

44%

25%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Banfield (Local)

Prediction 43.62%2.29fair odd

EV -4.03%

Edge -1.83%

Kelly -3.36%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.25%43.44%43.62%44.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.922.072.102.2052%48%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 24.90%4.02fair odd

EV -2.90%

Edge -0.742%

Kelly -0.998%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.62%24.90%24.90%26.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.303.643.633.9030%27%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 31.48%3.18fair odd

EV -5.56%

Edge -1.85%

Kelly -2.78%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.19%31.66%31.48%32.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.652.852.873.0038%35%35%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Fanatics	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.03%E -1.83%K -3.36%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-17 18:18
1xBet	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.34%E -2.46%K -4.56%G +0.000%	3.87I 25.84%NM 24.55%EV -3.64%E -0.941%K -1.27%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.67%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-17 18:19
SportsBet	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-17 17:49
FanDuel	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-17 17:49
Marathon Bet	2.13I 46.95%NM 43.76%EV -7.08%E -3.33%K -6.27%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%	2.94I 34.01%NM 31.71%EV -7.45%E -2.53%K -3.84%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-17 17:54
Codere (IT)	2.11I 47.39%NM 43.83%EV -7.96%E -3.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -2.90%E -0.742%K -0.998%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.45%EV -10.29%E -3.61%K -5.56%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-17 17:49
Paddy Power	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.39%E -4.00%K -7.63%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -9.34%E -3.24%K -4.97%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-07-17 17:48
Sky Bet	2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -10.57%E -5.16%K -10.07%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -17.83%E -5.40%K -7.75%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.68%G +0.000%	15.4%	2026-07-17 17:50
Winamax (DE)	1.98I 50.51%NM 43.90%EV -13.63%E -6.88%K -13.91%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 24.49%EV -11.61%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 31.61%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.68%G +0.000%	15.0%	2026-07-17 17:49
Betclic (FR)	1.95I 51.28%NM 44.21%EV -14.94%E -7.66%K -15.72%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 23.62%EV -9.12%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	2.68I 37.31%NM 32.17%EV -15.64%E -5.83%K -9.31%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-07-17 17:47
Unibet (FR)	1.93I 51.81%NM 44.16%EV -15.81%E -8.19%K -17.00%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 23.68%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 32.16%EV -16.58%E -6.26%K -10.05%G +0.000%	17.3%	2026-07-17 17:49
Winamax (FR)	1.92I 52.08%NM 43.68%EV -16.24%E -8.46%K -17.66%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 24.67%EV -15.34%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 31.65%EV -16.58%E -6.26%K -10.05%G +0.000%	19.2%	2026-07-17 17:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.