La escuela de los momios

Banfield v Sarmiento de Junin

2026-07-28 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Resultado del partido

35 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Banfield (Local)

Predicción 45.75%2.19momio equitativo
EV -1.64%
Ventaja -0.761%
Kelly -1.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.55%45.69%45.81%47.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.872.042.052.1553.48%48.93%48.78%46.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sarmiento de Junin (Visitante)

Predicción 22.92%4.36momio equitativo
EV -0.758%
Ventaja -0.175%
Kelly -0.228%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.00%23.09%22.90%25.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.923.904.3328.57%25.50%25.64%23.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.33%3.19momio equitativo
EV -2.88%
Ventaja -0.929%
Kelly -1.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.34%31.22%31.29%31.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.973.003.1037.04%33.65%33.33%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -1.64%E -0.761%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -14.05%E -3.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 22:00
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -1.64%E -0.761%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -15.20%E -4.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 17:49
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -1.64%E -0.761%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -15.20%E -4.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 17:49
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -3.01%E -1.42%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.47%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -4.45%E -1.46%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 04:54
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -3.01%E -1.42%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.47%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -4.45%E -1.46%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 04:54
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -3.92%E -1.87%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 07:20
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -3.92%E -1.87%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -17.49%E -4.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.15%E -3.15%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-23 22:14
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -3.92%E -1.87%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -19.78%E -5.65%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.28%E -4.39%K -6.82%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-25 22:05
1xBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.84%E -2.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.52%EV -3.28%E -0.777%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.79%EV -6.33%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 04:59
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.84%E -2.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%EV -3.74%E -0.890%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.68%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 00:55
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -4.84%E -2.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -10.61%E -2.72%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -2.88%E -0.929%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 22:30
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -4.84%E -2.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -10.61%E -2.72%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -2.88%E -0.929%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 22:30
BetRivers2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -4.84%E -2.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.88%E -0.929%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-24 22:30
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 44.30%EV -4.84%E -2.33%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.77%EV -9.15%E -3.15%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 05:19
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -5.75%E -2.79%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -7.58%E -2.57%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 08:40
Pinnacle2.05I 48.78%NM 46.46%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%EV -2.59%E -0.610%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.13%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 05:09
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 01:50
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 00:55
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.58%E -2.57%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 07:20
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -14.05%E -3.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-25 01:00
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -14.05%E -3.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-25 01:00
Marathon Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.76%EV -6.67%E -3.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -4.88%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.75%EV -7.89%E -2.68%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 04:59
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.16%EV -7.58%E -3.75%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV -0.758%E -0.175%K -0.228%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.83%EV -3.19%E -1.03%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 15:45
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.16%EV -7.58%E -3.75%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV -0.758%E -0.175%K -0.228%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.83%EV -3.19%E -1.03%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 15:45
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.21%EV -7.58%E -3.75%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -14.05%E -3.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 22:30
Virgin Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.21%EV -7.58%E -3.75%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -14.05%E -3.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 22:30
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.74%E -0.890%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 05:00
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 04:44
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.15%E -3.15%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-25 00:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 45.45%EV -9.87%E -5.01%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -15.20%E -4.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -7.58%E -2.57%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 22:30
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.24%EV -10.33%E -5.27%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.65%EV -14.05%E -3.75%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -10.71%E -3.76%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-25 00:55
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -10.79%E -5.53%K -11.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -6.01%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 03:05
Betclic (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 45.49%EV -11.70%E -6.06%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.92%EV -12.22%E -3.19%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.58%EV -12.90%E -4.64%K -7.25%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-25 00:54
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 44.66%EV -13.07%E -6.88%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.90%EV -18.63%E -5.25%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.43%EV -15.41%E -5.71%K -9.07%G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-25 00:55
Unibet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 46.04%EV -14.45%E -7.72%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.66%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.31%EV -13.84%E -5.03%K -7.91%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-25 00:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.36%4.5%2026-07-26 05:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.36%4.5%2026-07-26 05:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.36%4.5%2026-07-26 05:15
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 46.66%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.21%5.1%2026-07-26 05:14