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Washington Capitals v Pittsburgh Penguins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Washington Capitals (Local)
Prediction 57.05%1.75fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.14%57.09%57.11%58.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.681.681.7165.36%59.62%59.52%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)
Prediction 42.95%2.33fair odd
EV +0.077%
Edge +0.033%
Kelly +0.058%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.90%42.91%42.89%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.222.212.3348.31%45.07%45.15%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 57.05%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 42.95%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.328. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.330, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.077%.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV +0.077%E +0.033%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-12 19:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -2.50%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-12 18:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%EV -3.02%E -1.78%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%EV -2.93%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-12 18:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%EV -3.02%E -1.78%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%EV -2.93%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-12 18:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.73%E -2.83%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -2.93%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-12 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-12 16:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-12 18:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-12 18:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-12 18:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-12 16:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 18:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.87%E -3.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 18:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.87%E -3.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.36%E -1.49%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.79%E -1.69%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 18:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.79%E -1.69%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 18:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.73%E -2.83%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 18:58 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.73%E -2.83%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.45%E -1.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-12 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.02%E -1.78%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.02%E -1.78%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 16:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 17:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 18:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 18:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 16:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.59%E -2.12%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 18:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 18:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.73%E -2.83%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 16:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.87%E -3.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 19:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.87%E -3.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.51%E -2.50%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 19:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -5.94%E -2.71%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 18:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -5.94%E -2.71%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 19:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -5.94%E -2.71%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-12 16:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-12 18:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.16%E -2.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-12 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.72%E -8.31%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -11.09%E -5.36%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-12 18:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.83% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 43.17% | -0.6% | 2026-04-12 18:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-04-12 19:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-04-12 18:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-04-12 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87% | 1.2% | 2026-04-12 19:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 19:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79% | 2.3% | 2026-04-12 19:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54% | 3.2% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54% | 3.2% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54% | 3.2% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54% | 3.2% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.54% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.97% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.49% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 18:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.92% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.38% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 18:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.22% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.24% | 4.43I 22.57%NM 21.54% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 18:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.50% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18% | 4.9% | 2026-04-12 18:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.16% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.23% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.16% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.23% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.16% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.23% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 17:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.16% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.23% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 17:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.89% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32% | 6.6% | 2026-04-12 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.16% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69% | 7.2% | 2026-04-12 18:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11% | 7.7% | 2026-04-12 18:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.47% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.27% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 19:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46% | 8.3% | 2026-04-12 19:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.67% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.37% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96% | 8.4% | 2026-04-12 19:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.57% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49% | 8.4% | 2026-04-12 19:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.03% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.67% | 12.6% | 2026-04-12 17:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.10% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.05% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.85% | 14.2% | 2026-04-12 19:00 |