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Vegas Golden Knights v Anaheim Ducks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vegas Golden Knights (Local)
Prediction 57.90%1.73fair odd
EV -0.999%
Edge -0.584%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%57.75%57.93%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.651.7162.50%60.35%60.61%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Anaheim Ducks (Visit)
Prediction 42.10%2.38fair odd
EV -0.212%
Edge -0.089%
Kelly -0.155%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.51%42.25%42.07%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.302.3746.51%44.02%43.48%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vegas Golden Knights (Local): 57.90%; Anaheim Ducks (Visit): 42.10%. For Anaheim Ducks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.37, with an expected value of -0.212%; they did not produce positive expected value.
17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -0.999%E -0.584%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -9.47%E -4.41%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -2.16%E -1.28%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -2.74%E -1.19%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -2.16%E -1.28%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -2.16%E -1.28%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -2.16%E -1.28%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -2.74%E -1.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -7.79%E -3.56%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -3.31%E -1.98%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -0.212%E -0.089%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -3.31%E -1.98%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -2.32%E -0.999%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.31%E -1.98%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-07 01:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.31%E -1.98%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.31%E -1.98%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -3.31%E -1.98%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -3.58%E -1.56%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.31%E -1.98%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.26%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.31%E -1.98%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.05%E -0.448%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.05%E -0.448%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.16%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.26%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -5.69%E -2.54%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 01:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -5.69%E -2.54%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 01:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-07 01:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.47%E -2.71%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.47%E -4.41%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 01:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -5.05%E -3.08%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.32%E -0.999%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.05%E -3.08%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.26%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.05%E -3.08%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.26%E -2.34%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.21%E -3.83%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.05%E -0.448%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.21%E -3.83%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.05%E -0.448%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -6.21%E -3.83%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -2.74%E -1.19%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 01:32 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -7.37%E -4.60%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.05%E -0.448%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.39% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61% | 0.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.5% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.5% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04% | 2.1% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44% | 2.3% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00% | 2.6% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.10% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.41% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.50% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.03% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.03% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.03% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.03% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.44% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.89% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.67% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 01:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.90% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96% | 8.9% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.01% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37% | 12.6% | 2026-05-07 01:45 |