The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Detroit Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 65.86%1.52fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -5.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.63%65.88%65.85%66.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.451.451.4875.19%69.02%68.97%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 34.14%2.93fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.41%34.12%34.15%35.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.802.8538.46%36.00%35.71%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 65.86%; Detroit Red Wings (Visit): 34.14%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.48, with an expected value of -2.52%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.82%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.18%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-12 23:06
LowVig.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-12 23:07
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-12 23:08
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-12 23:06
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.18%E -2.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 23:10
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.18%E -2.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-12 23:06
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.05%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.95%EV -3.05%E -1.07%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 22:59
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 23:10
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 23:10
Paddy Power🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
GTbets🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:07
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:06
MyBookie.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -5.44%E -1.96%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 23:00
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:08
888sport🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Fliff🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -6.46%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 23:10
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -6.46%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 23:10
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:09
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.54%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 23:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:09
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Bally Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
FanDuel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -3.05%E -1.07%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 23:10
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 23:10
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 23:10
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.82%E -4.07%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:56
NetBet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.16%EV -12.40%E -9.33%K -37.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.84%EV -11.24%E -4.32%K -7.03%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-12 22:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.67%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.33%0.0%2026-03-12 22:59
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-03-12 23:10
Polymarket◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-03-12 23:10
ProphetX◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%2.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Novig◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%2.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%4.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%7.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Matchbook◎1.50I 66.67%NM 61.14%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.86%9.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 58.45%2.04I 49.02%NM 41.55%18.0%2026-03-12 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.41%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.33%3.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.66%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.87%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%4.7%2026-03-12 22:59
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.48%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.38%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.14%4.9%2026-03-12 22:59
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%5.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%6.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%6.7%2026-03-12 23:00
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%6.9%2026-03-12 23:10
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%7.6%2026-03-12 23:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%9.0%2026-03-12 22:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%9.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%9.3%2026-03-12 23:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.29%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.83%10.4%2026-03-12 23:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.71%11.0%2026-03-12 23:08
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.94%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.44%13.8%2026-03-12 23:10