A Escola das Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning v Detroit Red Wings

Início: 2026-03-12 23:15 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

41 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Previsão 65.86%1.52odd justa
EV -2.52%
Vantagem -1.71%
Kelly -5.26%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.48

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
64.63%65.88%65.85%66.59%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.331.451.451.4875.19%69.02%68.97%67.57%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Detroit Red Wings (Visitante)

Previsão 34.14%2.93odd justa
EV -2.71%
Vantagem -0.950%
Kelly -1.46%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.85

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
33.41%34.12%34.15%35.37%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.602.782.802.8538.46%36.00%35.71%35.09%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

22 casas de apostas oferecem um número de opções diferente neste mercado (3 opções, em vez das 2 opções usadas na análise). Os resultados da análise devem ser interpretados com prudência devido a esta disparidade.

Odds das casas de apostas (41 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Pinnacle1.48I 67.57%NM 65.82%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.18%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-12 23:06
LowVig.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-12 23:07
BetOnline.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-12 23:08
BetUS1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-12 23:06
theScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.18%E -2.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 23:10
BetAnything1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.18%E -2.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-12 23:06
ReBet1.46I 68.49%NM 66.05%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.95%EV -3.05%E -1.07%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 22:59
Bet Right1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 23:10
DraftKings1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 23:10
Paddy Power1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Caesars1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
GTbets1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:07
BetMGM1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:06
MyBookie.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -5.44%E -1.96%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 23:00
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:10
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:08
888sport1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Fliff1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:10
888sport (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Mr Green (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -6.46%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 23:10
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -6.46%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 23:10
TAB1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Bet Victor1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:09
Neds1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.54%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 23:10
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Bovada1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:09
betPARX1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Bally Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
FanDuel1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -3.05%E -1.07%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 23:10
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 23:10
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 23:10
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.82%E -4.07%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:56
NetBet (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 66.16%EV -12.40%E -9.33%K -37.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.84%EV -11.24%E -4.32%K -7.03%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-12 22:58
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (9)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
BetOpenly1.50I 66.67%NM 66.67%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.33%0.0%2026-03-12 22:59
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-03-12 23:10
Polymarket1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-03-12 23:10
ProphetX1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%2.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Novig1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%2.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%4.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%7.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Matchbook1.50I 66.67%NM 61.14%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.86%9.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 58.45%2.04I 49.02%NM 41.55%18.0%2026-03-12 23:10

Outras casas de apostas — não incluídas na análise (22)

Estas casas oferecem um número de opções diferente neste mercado e são excluídas da análise. As respetivas odds são apresentadas apenas como referência — as regras de liquidação das apostas podem ser diferentes e implicar incerteza adicional.

Casa de apostasOpção 1Opção 2Opção 3Margem ▲Atualização
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
ATG (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Svenska Spel1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.41%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.33%3.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.66%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.87%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%4.7%2026-03-12 22:59
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.48%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.38%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.14%4.9%2026-03-12 22:59
Unibet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (NL)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%5.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%6.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%6.7%2026-03-12 23:00
TABtouch1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%6.9%2026-03-12 23:10
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%7.6%2026-03-12 23:10
Parions Sport (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%9.0%2026-03-12 22:59
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%9.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Codere (IT)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%9.3%2026-03-12 23:01
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.29%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.83%10.4%2026-03-12 23:09
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 53.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.71%11.0%2026-03-12 23:08
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 52.94%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.44%13.8%2026-03-12 23:10