La escuela de los momios

Tampa Bay Lightning v Detroit Red Wings

Inicio: 2026-03-12 23:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Predicción 65.86%1.52momio equitativo
EV -2.52%
Ventaja -1.71%
Kelly -5.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.63%65.88%65.85%66.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.331.451.451.4875.19%69.02%68.97%67.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Detroit Red Wings (Visitante)

Predicción 34.14%2.93momio equitativo
EV -2.71%
Ventaja -0.950%
Kelly -1.46%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.41%34.12%34.15%35.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.782.802.8538.46%36.00%35.71%35.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

22 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.48I 67.57%NM 65.82%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.18%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-12 23:06
LowVig.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-12 23:07
BetOnline.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -4.07%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-12 23:08
BetUS1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.52%E -1.71%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-12 23:06
theScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.18%E -2.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 23:10
BetAnything1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.18%E -2.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-12 23:06
ReBet1.46I 68.49%NM 66.05%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.95%EV -3.05%E -1.07%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 22:59
Bet Right1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 23:10
DraftKings1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 23:10
Paddy Power1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Caesars1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
GTbets1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:07
BetMGM1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:06
MyBookie.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -5.44%E -1.96%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 23:00
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:10
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:08
888sport1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Fliff1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:10
888sport (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Mr Green (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 23:06
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -6.46%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 23:10
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -6.46%E -2.36%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 23:10
TAB1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Bet Victor1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:09
Neds1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.54%E -3.60%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 23:10
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Bovada1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:09
betPARX1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Bally Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 23:10
FanDuel1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -3.05%E -1.07%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 23:10
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 23:10
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 23:10
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.16%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.12%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 23:10
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.82%E -4.07%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.71%E -0.950%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:56
NetBet (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 66.16%EV -12.40%E -9.33%K -37.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.84%EV -11.24%E -4.32%K -7.03%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-12 22:58
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.50I 66.67%NM 66.67%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.33%0.0%2026-03-12 22:59
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-03-12 23:10
Polymarket1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-03-12 23:10
ProphetX1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%2.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Novig1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%2.7%2026-03-12 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%4.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%7.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Matchbook1.50I 66.67%NM 61.14%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.86%9.0%2026-03-12 23:10
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 58.45%2.04I 49.02%NM 41.55%18.0%2026-03-12 23:10

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (22)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
ATG (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Svenska Spel1.76I 56.82%NM 55.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%2.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.41%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.33%3.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.66%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.87%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%4.7%2026-03-12 22:59
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.48%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.38%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.14%4.9%2026-03-12 22:59
Unibet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Unibet (NL)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%5.4%2026-03-12 23:10
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%5.9%2026-03-12 23:10
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%6.5%2026-03-12 23:10
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%6.7%2026-03-12 23:00
TABtouch1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%6.9%2026-03-12 23:10
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%7.6%2026-03-12 23:10
Parions Sport (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%9.0%2026-03-12 22:59
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%9.1%2026-03-12 23:10
Codere (IT)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%9.3%2026-03-12 23:01
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.29%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.83%10.4%2026-03-12 23:09
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 53.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.71%11.0%2026-03-12 23:08
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 52.94%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.44%13.8%2026-03-12 23:10