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Philadelphia Flyers v Pittsburgh Penguins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Philadelphia Flyers (Local)
Prediction 49.96%2.00fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.798%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.82%50.07%50.00%51.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.901.901.9757.14%52.54%52.63%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)
Prediction 50.04%2.00fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.68%49.93%50.00%51.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.911.911.9557.14%52.49%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Flyers (Local): 49.96%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 50.04%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.97, with an expected value of -1.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%EV -1.57%E -0.798%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.26%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -2.07%E -1.06%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-22 22:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -2.07%E -1.06%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-22 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -5.93%E -3.16%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 22:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 23:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 22:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -2.57%E -1.32%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -6.93%E -3.73%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-22 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-22 22:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -3.57%E -1.85%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.07%E -2.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -5.43%E -2.87%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-22 22:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 21:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 13:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.39%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.43%E -2.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 22:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 22:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 22:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 22:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.07%E -2.67%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.93%E -2.60%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -5.57%E -2.95%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -3.43%E -1.78%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 22:44 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -5.57%E -2.95%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 22:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 15:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 15:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 16:03 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 15:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.57%E -3.51%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.43%E -3.44%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.57%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 15:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.57%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.43%E -1.25%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 15:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -7.57%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 16:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -7.57%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -3.93%E -2.05%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 15:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.57%E -4.09%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.43%E -4.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.00%EV -12.56%E -7.18%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.00%EV -12.44%E -7.11%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13% | 0.3% | 2026-04-22 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-04-22 20:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.87% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.13% | 1.3% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.06% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11% | 3.0% | 2026-04-22 22:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.06% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11% | 3.0% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.06% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11% | 3.0% | 2026-04-22 22:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.06% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11% | 3.0% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.71% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.25% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.04% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 23:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.01% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 22:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.01% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 22:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 22:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 22:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.71% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.71% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 23:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 22:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 09:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.35% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.35% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30% | 7.3% | 2026-04-22 22:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.57% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.57% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.86% | 8.0% | 2026-04-22 23:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.42% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.42% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15% | 12.2% | 2026-04-22 22:39 |