The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Ottawa Senators v Montréal Canadiens

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ottawa Senators (Local)

Prediction 62.97%1.59fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -5.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.56%63.38%62.96%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.511.531.5472.46%66.20%65.36%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montréal Canadiens (Visit)

Prediction 37.03%2.70fair odd
EV +5.53%
Edge +1.94%
Kelly +2.99%
Growth +0.165%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%36.62%37.04%38.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.592.602.8541.32%38.57%38.46%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ottawa Senators (Local): 62.97%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 37.03%. For Montréal Canadiens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.53%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -9.32%E -6.47%K -21.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +5.53%E +1.94%K +2.99%G +0.165%4.5%2026-03-11 23:15
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -8.69%E -5.99%K -19.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +3.67%E +1.31%K +2.04%G +0.075%4.7%2026-03-11 23:09
Paddy Power🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -8.69%E -5.99%K -19.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +3.67%E +1.31%K +2.04%G +0.075%4.7%2026-03-11 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -8.69%E -5.99%K -19.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +3.67%E +1.31%K +2.04%G +0.075%4.7%2026-03-11 23:09
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -9.32%E -6.47%K -21.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +3.67%E +1.31%K +2.04%G +0.075%5.2%2026-03-11 23:09
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-11 15:15
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.16%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.84%EV -2.25%E -0.852%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-11 22:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -2.62%E -0.996%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-11 23:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -2.62%E -0.996%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-11 23:09
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -2.62%E -0.996%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-11 23:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-11 23:19
ReBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -3.36%E -1.29%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 23:19
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-11 23:05
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-11 22:44
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-11 14:50
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-11 23:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-11 23:20
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-11 23:19
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 23:19
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-11 14:50
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 15:20
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -4.47%E -1.73%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 19:49
Bally Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-11 18:50
betPARX🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-11 18:54
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 15:14
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-11 16:15
NordicBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.91%E -3.25%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-11 23:19
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.91%E -3.25%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-11 23:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 23:09
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 23:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 23:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 23:09
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-11 23:14
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-11 14:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-11 14:40
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 15:20
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 23:18
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 14:40
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 14:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.68%EV -13.10%E -9.49%K -34.47%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.32%EV -10.40%E -4.30%K -7.32%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-11 23:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%0.3%2026-03-11 23:20
Novig◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-03-11 23:19
ProphetX◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%0.9%2026-03-11 23:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%0.9%2026-03-11 23:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%0.9%2026-03-11 23:19
Matchbook◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%0.9%2026-03-11 23:20
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-03-11 15:05
Polymarket◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-03-11 19:34
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15%1.7%2026-03-11 23:19

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.73%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.52%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.74%3.1%2026-03-11 23:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%3.1%2026-03-11 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%3.1%2026-03-11 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%3.1%2026-03-11 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%3.1%2026-03-11 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.09%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%3.6%2026-03-11 23:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.02%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.27%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%4.7%2026-03-11 23:19
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%4.8%2026-03-11 23:09
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%5.2%2026-03-11 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%5.2%2026-03-11 18:50
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%5.2%2026-03-11 18:50
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%5.2%2026-03-11 18:55
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%6.4%2026-03-11 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%6.9%2026-03-11 23:19
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%7.7%2026-03-11 23:14
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%8.0%2026-03-11 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%8.8%2026-03-11 23:19
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%8.8%2026-03-11 23:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%9.0%2026-03-11 23:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.51%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%10.9%2026-03-11 23:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.95%11.1%2026-03-11 23:18
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%14.3%2026-03-11 23:19