默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Ottawa Senators v Montréal Canadiens

开赛时间： 2026-03-11 23:30 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

41 家博彩公司 (14 家纳入分析 )

63%

37%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Ottawa Senators (主队)

预测 62.97%1.59公平赔率

EV -3.02%

优势 -1.96%

Kelly -5.59%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.54

博彩公司预测分布

61.56%63.38%62.96%66.43%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.381.511.531.5472.46%66.20%65.36%64.94%最小值均值中位数最大值

Montréal Canadiens (客队)

预测 37.03%2.70公平赔率

EV +5.53%

优势 +1.94%

Kelly +2.99%

增长率 +0.165%

假设最高赔率为 2.85

博彩公司预测分布

33.57%36.62%37.04%38.44%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.422.592.602.8541.32%38.57%38.46%35.09%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Ottawa Senators (主队)：62.97%；Montréal Canadiens (客队)：37.03%。对于“Montréal Canadiens (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.70。当时有5家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.85，对应+5.53%的正期望值。

有 22 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (41 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	利润率	更新时间
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -9.32%E -6.47%K -21.18%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +5.53%E +1.94%K +2.99%G +0.165%	4.5%	2026-03-11 23:15
FanDuel🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -8.69%E -5.99%K -19.31%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +3.67%E +1.31%K +2.04%G +0.075%	4.7%	2026-03-11 23:09
Paddy Power🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -8.69%E -5.99%K -19.31%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +3.67%E +1.31%K +2.04%G +0.075%	4.7%	2026-03-11 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -8.69%E -5.99%K -19.31%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +3.67%E +1.31%K +2.04%G +0.075%	4.7%	2026-03-11 23:09
SportsBet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -9.32%E -6.47%K -21.18%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +3.67%E +1.31%K +2.04%G +0.075%	5.2%	2026-03-11 23:09
Everygame🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -1.88%E -0.709%K -1.14%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-03-11 15:15
Pinnacle🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 63.16%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.84%EV -2.25%E -0.852%K -1.37%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-03-11 22:59
LowVig.ag🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -2.62%E -0.996%K -1.61%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-03-11 23:09
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -2.62%E -0.996%K -1.61%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-03-11 23:09
BetUS🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -2.62%E -0.996%K -1.61%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-11 23:19
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.99%E -1.14%K -1.85%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-11 23:19
ReBet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -3.36%E -1.29%K -2.09%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-11 23:19
Bovada🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-11 23:05
BetAnything🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-11 22:44
GTbets🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-11 14:50
Fanatics🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-11 23:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-11 23:20
theScore Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-11 23:19
Bet Right🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-11 23:19
DraftKings🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-11 14:50
William Hill🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.73%E -1.43%K -2.33%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-11 15:20
Caesars🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -4.47%E -1.73%K -2.83%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-11 19:49
Bally Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-11 18:50
betPARX🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.02%E -1.96%K -5.59%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-11 18:54
BetRivers🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-11 18:55
BetMGM🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-11 15:14
PlayUp🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-11 16:15
NordicBet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.91%E -3.25%K -9.63%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-11 23:19
Betsson🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.91%E -3.25%K -9.63%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-11 23:20
Betr (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-11 23:09
888sport🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-11 23:09
888sport (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-11 23:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.58%E -2.19%K -3.60%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-11 23:09
Fliff🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-11 23:14
Coral🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-11 14:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-11 14:40
TAB🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.28%E -2.82%K -8.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-11 15:20
Bet Victor🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.54%E -3.69%K -11.08%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.43%E -2.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-11 23:18
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-11 14:40
Neds🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.65%E -2.39%K -6.89%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.28%E -3.79%K -6.40%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-11 14:39
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 63.68%EV -13.10%E -9.49%K -34.47%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 36.32%EV -10.40%E -4.30%K -7.32%G +0.000%	13.8%	2026-03-11 23:14

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (9)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
BetOpenly◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%	2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%	0.3%	2026-03-11 23:20
Novig◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	0.6%	2026-03-11 23:19
ProphetX◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%	2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%	0.9%	2026-03-11 23:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%	2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%	0.9%	2026-03-11 23:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%	2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%	0.9%	2026-03-11 23:19
Matchbook◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%	2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%	0.9%	2026-03-11 23:20
Kalshi◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%	2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%	1.1%	2026-03-11 15:05
Polymarket◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%	2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%	1.1%	2026-03-11 19:34
Smarkets◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85%	2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15%	1.7%	2026-03-11 23:19

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (22)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
1xBet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 49.73%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.52%	4.46I 22.42%NM 21.74%	3.1%	2026-03-11 23:09
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%	3.1%	2026-03-11 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%	3.1%	2026-03-11 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%	3.1%	2026-03-11 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%	3.1%	2026-03-11 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.84I 54.35%NM 52.46%	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.09%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%	3.6%	2026-03-11 23:19
Marathon Bet🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.02%	3.38I 29.59%NM 28.27%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%	4.7%	2026-03-11 23:19
Coolbet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%	4.8%	2026-03-11 23:09
Unibet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%	5.2%	2026-03-11 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%	5.2%	2026-03-11 18:50
Grosvenor🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%	5.2%	2026-03-11 18:50
Casumo🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%	5.2%	2026-03-11 18:55
TABtouch🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%	6.4%	2026-03-11 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%	6.9%	2026-03-11 23:19
Betway🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%	7.7%	2026-03-11 23:14
LeoVegas🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.59%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%	8.0%	2026-03-11 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%	8.8%	2026-03-11 23:19
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%	8.8%	2026-03-11 23:20
Codere (IT)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 51.55%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%	9.0%	2026-03-11 23:19
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 51.51%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%	10.9%	2026-03-11 23:19
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%	3.38I 29.59%NM 26.63%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.95%	11.1%	2026-03-11 23:18
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%	3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%	14.3%	2026-03-11 23:19