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Montréal Canadiens v Tampa Bay Lightning
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Montréal Canadiens (Local)
Prediction 47.82%2.09fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%47.96%47.78%48.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.982.002.0454.64%50.39%50.00%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)
Prediction 52.18%1.92fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.731%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.04%52.04%52.22%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.831.831.8958.82%54.67%54.64%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 47.82%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 52.18%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.89, with an expected value of -1.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.44%E -1.20%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.47%E -1.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-24 00:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.40%E -1.68%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.03%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 02:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.47%E -1.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 18:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 03:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 05:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 11:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 11:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 05:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 02:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 11:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 05:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 02:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 03:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 04:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 17:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 08:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-24 00:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 03:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-24 00:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.84%E -2.43%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.03%E -2.77%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-22 05:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.84%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.16%EV -1.38%E -0.731%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 07:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.84%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.16%EV -1.38%E -0.731%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 07:19 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 18:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 23:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 12:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 15:38 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.51%E -2.47%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 15:38 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 16:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.31%E -2.68%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.08%E -3.38%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 16:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -6.27%E -3.20%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -1.90%E -1.01%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -6.27%E -3.20%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -1.90%E -1.01%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.43%E -1.30%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 18:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.47%E -1.88%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 18:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.66%E -4.53%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -8.69%E -4.96%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 18:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -12.49%E -6.82%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.84%EV -11.30%E -6.64%K -16.14%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-23 18:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26% | 0.6% | 2026-04-23 22:35 |
| Novig◎ | 2.05I 48.78%NM 48.36% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.64% | 0.9% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-04-23 20:59 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-04-23 23:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-04-24 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-04-23 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-04-23 20:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.53% | 2.1% | 2026-04-23 23:59 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.92% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.12% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.92% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.12% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.92% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.12% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.92% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.96% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.12% | 3.0% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.49% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 23.06% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 00:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.48% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.50% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.03% | 4.6% | 2026-04-24 00:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.69% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.59% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.69% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.59% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 13:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.68% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.26% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.68% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.26% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.68% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.26% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.68% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.26% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 18:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.04% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 16:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.73% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.16% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 23:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.89% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 18:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 18:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.80% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12% | 10.9% | 2026-04-23 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.64% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.43% | 12.3% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |