The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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South Africa v Australia

2026-10-18 08:00 UTC — Test Matches

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 40.85%2.45fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.812%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.64%40.85%41.34%42.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.402.4046.51%43.08%41.67%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 46.22%2.16fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.32%46.22%45.37%48.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.032.052.1052.63%49.16%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.93%7.74fair odd
EV +29.28%
Edge +2.93%
Kelly +3.25%
Growth +0.953%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.16%12.93%13.29%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.765.7510.0017.39%14.79%17.39%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: South Africa (Local): 40.85%; Australia (Visit): 46.22%; Draw: 12.93%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.74. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 10.00, producing a positive expected value of +29.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.55%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.87%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.57%EV +29.28%E +2.93%K +3.25%G +0.953%4.4%2026-10-13 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.59%EV -10.12%E -4.60%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.05%EV -9.88%E -5.06%K -10.40%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +29.28%E +2.93%K +3.25%G +0.953%6.7%2026-10-13 11:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.62%EV -12.16%E -5.66%K -10.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.22%EV -12.19%E -6.41%K -13.54%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV +29.28%E +2.93%K +3.25%G +0.953%9.1%2026-10-13 11:39
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.37%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -9.50%E -1.36%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-13 12:04
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.37%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -9.50%E -1.36%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-13 12:04
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.99%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.50%E -1.36%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-13 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.99%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.50%E -1.36%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-13 12:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -2.94%E -1.40%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -15.97%E -2.46%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 12:04
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -2.94%E -1.40%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -15.97%E -2.46%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 12:05
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -1.95%E -0.812%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -5.25%E -2.56%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -25.66%E -4.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (60 combinations) +0.72%Unibet 2.40 (42.0%) / Ladbrokes (UK) 2.10 (48.0%) / NordicBet 10.00 (10.1%)Show all 60 combinations
South Africa (Local)Australia (Visit)DrawMargin
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
ATG (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
ATG (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%

Showing 50 of 60 combinations