The School of Odds
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South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 34.25%2.92fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.37%34.31%34.19%35.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.712.702.8038.17%36.83%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 43.54%2.30fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.76%43.56%43.53%44.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.142.152.2047.62%46.78%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.20%4.50fair odd
EV -0.080%
Edge -0.018%
Kelly -0.023%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.74%22.13%22.28%22.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.274.204.5025.00%23.43%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 34.25%; Australia (Visit): 43.54%; Draw: 22.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.504. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.500, with an expected value of -0.080%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.21%E -1.91%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -6.74%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 07:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.26%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.82%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.52%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 07:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.26%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.82%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.52%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-18 07:55
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80%EV -4.21%E -1.91%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -8.96%E -2.19%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 07:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.60%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -6.74%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 07:55
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -3.85%E -0.890%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 07:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.36%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -8.96%E -2.19%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 07:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.36%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -8.96%E -2.19%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 07:55
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.36%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -8.96%E -2.19%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-18 07:55
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -6.74%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 07:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -6.74%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 07:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -11.18%E -2.80%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 07:55
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -11.18%E -2.80%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 07:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.02%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 07:55
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.02%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 07:55
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.02%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 07:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.02%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 07:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.02%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 07:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.02%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 07:54
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.09%EV -6.82%E -3.19%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 07:55
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.09%EV -6.82%E -3.19%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 07:55
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -4.21%E -1.91%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.74%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 07:55
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.09%EV -6.39%E -2.97%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -8.96%E -2.19%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-18 07:55
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.90%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%EV -6.74%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 07:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -9.23%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.03%EV -7.69%E -3.63%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -0.080%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 07:55
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.09%EV -9.91%E -3.77%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.94%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -2.30%E -0.523%K -0.677%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-18 07:55
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.45%EV -10.25%E -3.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -11.18%E -2.80%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 07:53
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.45%EV -10.25%E -3.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -8.56%E -4.08%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -11.18%E -2.80%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 07:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.73%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.57%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.70%0.2%2026-10-18 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.88%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.47%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%0.4%2026-10-18 07:55
Matchbook◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.36%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60%0.6%2026-10-18 07:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.57%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.36%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-10-18 07:55