Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

South Africa v Australia

2026-10-18 08:00 UTC — Test Matches

Resultado del partido

20 corredores (4 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

South Africa (Local)

Predicción 41.34%2.42momio equitativo
EV -0.785%
Ventaja -0.327%
Kelly -0.561%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.64%40.98%41.34%42.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.322.332.4046.51%43.15%43.01%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Australia (Visitante)

Predicción 45.37%2.20momio equitativo
EV -4.72%
Ventaja -2.25%
Kelly -4.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.32%46.01%45.37%48.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.902.032.052.1052.63%49.14%48.78%47.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 13.29%7.53momio equitativo
EV +32.88%
Ventaja +3.29%
Kelly +3.65%
Crecimiento +1.20%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.16%13.02%13.29%16.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.756.786.1310.0017.39%14.76%16.33%10.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: South Africa (Local): 41.34%; Australia (Visitante): 45.37%; Empate: 13.29%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 7.53. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 10.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +32.88%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (20 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.55%EV -6.99%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.87%EV -9.25%E -4.63%K -9.25%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.57%EV +32.88%E +3.29%K +3.65%G +1.20%4.4%2026-10-13 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.59%EV -9.05%E -4.11%K -7.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.05%EV -11.52%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +32.88%E +3.29%K +3.65%G +1.20%6.7%2026-10-13 11:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.62%EV -11.12%E -5.17%K -9.67%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.22%EV -13.79%E -7.26%K -15.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV +32.88%E +3.29%K +3.65%G +1.20%9.1%2026-10-13 11:39
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.99%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.37%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.99%E -0.998%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-13 12:04
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.99%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.37%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.99%E -0.998%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-13 12:04
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.99%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.37%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.99%E -0.998%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-13 13:44
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -6.99%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.99%EV -9.25%E -4.63%K -9.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -6.99%E -0.998%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-13 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -6.99%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.99%EV -9.25%E -4.63%K -9.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -6.99%E -0.998%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-13 12:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -6.99%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -13.63%E -2.10%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 12:04
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -6.99%E -3.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -13.63%E -2.10%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 12:05
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:34
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -0.785%E -0.327%K -0.561%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -23.60%E -4.10%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-13 11:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Arbitraje (60 combinaciones) +0.72%Unibet 2.40 (42.0%) / Ladbrokes (UK) 2.10 (48.0%) / NordicBet 10.00 (10.1%)Ver las 60 combinaciones
South Africa (Local)Australia (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Virgin Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Casumo🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
TABtouch🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Grosvenor🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
Unibet (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
LiveScore Bet🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Coral🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
ATG (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)NordicBet🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%
ATG (SE)🎯 2.40 (42.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 10.00 (10.1%)+0.719%

Mostrando 50 de 60 combinaciones