Predictor Independence

Across 5745 measured pairs on 2-way markets (no draw slot), the errors of BetOnline.ag + LowVig.ag move together most closely (residual correlation 1.00). For the purpose of aggregating them, such a pair is closer to one opinion than to two.

Two bookmakers that make the same errors on the same games are not two opinions. This page measures the correlation between every pair of predictors’ residuals, so that consulting five books which move together can be told apart from consulting five independent ones.

Accuracy of every bookmaker on every settled game in the last 14 days, scored at two snapshots: the closing line (last tick before kickoff) and 24 hours before kickoff.