The School of Odds

Washington Mystics v Connecticut Sun

2026-07-28 23:30 UTC — WNBA

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Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Washington Mystics (Local)

Prediction 64.21%1.56fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -5.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.26%64.21%64.44%67.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.421.471.461.5170%68%68%66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Connecticut Sun (Visit)

Prediction 35.79%2.79fair odd
EV +6.67%
Edge +2.24%
Kelly +3.37%
Growth +0.225%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.27%35.79%35.56%36.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.722.712.9838%37%37%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -8.83%E -6.22%K -21.02%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV +6.67%E +2.24%K +3.37%G +0.225%4.0%2026-07-23 04:04
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.90%E -4.76%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.56%E -0.569%K -0.894%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-23 04:04
FanDuel1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -5.62%E -3.82%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -2.64%E -0.970%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-23 03:49
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -7.54%E -5.24%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -3.00%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 04:29
GTbets1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.69%E -2.46%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-23 06:29
Caesars1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.33%E -2.91%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-23 05:33
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.54%E -5.24%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.22%E -2.37%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 03:49
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.05%E -2.02%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -6.93%E -2.67%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-23 04:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%8.0%2026-07-23 05:09
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.22%DraftKings 1.51 (66.4%) / 1xBet 2.98 (33.6%)Show details
Washington Mystics (Local)Connecticut Sun (Visit)Margin
DraftKings 1.51 (66.4%)1xBet 2.98 (33.6%)+0.218%