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Phoenix Mercury v Connecticut Sun
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 61.53%1.63fair odd
EV -0.944%
Edge -0.586%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.29%61.41%61.62%62.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.561.6166.67%64.02%64.10%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Connecticut Sun (Visit)
Prediction 38.47%2.60fair odd
EV +0.033%
Edge +0.013%
Kelly +0.021%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.20%38.59%38.38%40.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.442.452.6044.84%41.00%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 61.53%; Connecticut Sun (Visit): 38.47%. For Connecticut Sun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.599. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.600, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.033%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betano_uk | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV +0.033%E +0.013%K +0.021%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Bet Victor | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV +0.033%E +0.013%K +0.021%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Bovada | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV +0.033%E +0.013%K +0.021%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-18 01:56 |
| theScore Bet | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.89%E -0.741%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Bet Right | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.48%E -4.26%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.89%E -0.741%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.10%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.90%EV -2.28%E -0.896%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| DraftKings | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -2.28%E -0.896%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.66%E -1.05%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.66%E -1.05%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Caesars | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -3.04%E -1.21%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-18 01:57 |
| BetAnything | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| BetUS | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Fanatics | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| GTbets | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| BetMGM | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -7.10%E -4.70%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.71%E -5.14%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -5.35%E -2.18%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Coolbet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -5.35%E -2.18%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -2.79%E -1.77%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Neds | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Betway | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| TAB | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| ReBet | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -6.51%E -2.68%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| 888sport | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Betsson | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| NordicBet | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| BoyleSports | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Unibet | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Bally Bet | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| betPARX | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| Fliff | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| BetRivers | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.56%E -0.974%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.35%E -4.44%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 01:59 |
| TABtouch | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.56%E -0.974%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.35%E -4.44%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.51%E -5.00%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.69%EV -14.20%E -6.37%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23% | 0.3% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 0.4% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 0.4% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| ProphetX | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 0.8% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Polymarket | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Novig | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.72% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28% | 1.3% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |
| Kalshi | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31% | 2.0% | 2026-07-18 02:00 |