La escuela de los momios

Phoenix Mercury v Connecticut Sun

Inicio: 2026-07-18 02:06 UTC

Final: Phoenix Mercury 83–96 Connecticut Sun

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Phoenix Mercury (Local)

Predicción 61.53%1.63momio equitativo
EV -0.944%
Ventaja -0.586%
Kelly -1.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.29%61.41%61.62%62.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.501.561.561.6166.67%64.02%64.10%62.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Connecticut Sun (Visitante)

Predicción 38.47%2.60momio equitativo
EV +0.033%
Ventaja +0.013%
Kelly +0.021%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.20%38.59%38.38%40.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.232.442.452.6044.84%41.00%40.82%38.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
betano_uk1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV +0.033%E +0.013%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-18 01:59
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV +0.033%E +0.013%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-18 01:59
Bovada1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV +0.033%E +0.013%K +0.021%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-18 01:56
theScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.89%E -0.741%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-18 02:00
Bet Right1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.48%E -4.26%K -12.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.89%E -0.741%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 02:00
Pinnacle1.55I 64.52%NM 62.10%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.90%EV -2.28%E -0.896%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-18 01:59
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -2.28%E -0.896%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 02:00
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.66%E -1.05%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-18 02:00
LowVig.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.66%E -1.05%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-18 02:00
Caesars1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -3.04%E -1.21%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-18 01:57
BetAnything1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-18 01:59
BetUS1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-18 01:59
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 02:00
GTbets1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 01:59
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 02:00
Hard Rock Bet1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -7.10%E -4.70%K -13.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 02:00
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.71%E -5.14%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.81%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-18 02:00
FanDuel1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -5.35%E -2.18%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 02:00
Coolbet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -5.35%E -2.18%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 01:59
Unibet (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -2.79%E -1.77%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 01:59
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-18 02:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-18 02:00
MyBookie.ag1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 01:59
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 01:59
SportsBet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 02:00
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 02:00
TAB1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.74%E -2.34%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 01:59
ReBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -6.51%E -2.68%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 01:59
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 01:59
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 01:59
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.40%E -2.17%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 01:59
Betsson1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 01:59
NordicBet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -5.25%E -3.41%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 01:59
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.43%E -3.54%K -6.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 01:59
Unibet (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 01:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 02:00
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 02:00
Unibet (NL)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 02:00
Svenska Spel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 02:00
Bally Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 02:00
betPARX1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 02:00
ATG (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -0.944%E -0.586%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 01:59
Fliff1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.02%E -2.58%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.59%E -4.08%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-18 02:00
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.56%E -0.974%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.35%E -4.44%K -7.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 01:59
TABtouch1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -1.56%E -0.974%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -10.35%E -4.44%K -7.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 02:00
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.51%E -5.00%K -8.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-18 02:00
PMU (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -5.87%E -3.83%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.69%EV -14.20%E -6.37%K -11.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-18 02:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%0.3%2026-07-18 02:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-07-18 02:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-07-18 02:00
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-07-18 02:00
Polymarket1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-07-18 02:00
Novig1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-07-18 02:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.72%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28%1.3%2026-07-18 02:00
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-07-18 02:00