The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Las Vegas Aces v Portland Fire

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 02:05 UTC

Final: Las Vegas Aces 98–83 Portland Fire

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Aces (Local)

Prediction 84.11%1.19fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -15.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.70%84.12%84.27%85.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.131.131.1690.91%88.40%88.50%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Portland Fire (Visit)

Prediction 15.89%6.29fair odd
EV +3.30%
Edge +0.507%
Kelly +0.600%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.70%15.88%15.73%18.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.915.976.5020.00%16.92%16.75%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Vegas Aces (Local): 84.11%; Portland Fire (Visit): 15.89%. For Portland Fire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.29. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +3.30%E +0.507%K +0.600%G +0.020%4.7%2026-07-28 17:39
BetMGM🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +3.30%E +0.507%K +0.600%G +0.020%4.7%2026-07-29 01:54
BetAnything🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +3.30%E +0.507%K +0.600%G +0.020%4.7%2026-07-28 18:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV +1.71%E +0.267%K +0.316%G +0.005%4.1%2026-07-29 01:19
BetUS🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.89%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.11%EV +0.914%E +0.144%K +0.171%G +0.002%4.2%2026-07-29 00:29
Fanatics🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.675%E -0.108%K -0.129%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-29 01:59
GTbets🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -1.47%E -0.237%K -0.283%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-29 01:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -1.47%E -0.237%K -0.283%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-29 01:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -1.47%E -0.237%K -0.283%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-29 01:59
Pinnacle🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -1.47%E -0.237%K -0.283%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-29 01:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -1.47%E -0.237%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-29 01:54
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -1.47%E -0.237%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-29 01:54
MyBookie.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -1.47%E -0.237%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-29 01:29
Fliff🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.59%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.41%EV -2.26%E -0.368%K -0.440%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-29 01:59
ReBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -3.06%E -0.501%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-29 01:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.65%E -0.775%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 20:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.65%E -0.775%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 01:59
Bet Right🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.65%E -0.775%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 20:49
Bovada🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.65%E -0.775%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 01:59
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.65%E -0.775%K -0.930%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 01:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.65%E -0.775%K -0.930%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 01:39
theScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.65%E -0.775%K -0.930%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 20:04
Coolbet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -4.65%E -0.775%K -0.930%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 21:34
DraftKings🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.97%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 16.03%EV -5.12%E -0.858%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-29 01:59
Bet Victor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -2.43%E -2.10%K -15.22%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -7.83%E -1.35%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-29 01:48
betano_uk🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -2.43%E -2.10%K -15.22%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -7.83%E -1.35%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-29 01:48
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:49
TABtouch🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:49
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:50
BetRivers🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:50
Bally Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:49
betPARX🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 01:50
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.96%E -4.39%K -38.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-29 01:40
Betsson🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-29 01:59
NordicBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -8.62%E -1.50%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-29 01:59
FanDuel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -9.42%E -1.65%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-29 02:00
Betway🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.59%E -2.29%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-29 01:59
TAB🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.12%E -3.61%K -29.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.59%E -2.29%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-28 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -12.59%E -2.29%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-29 01:39
BoyleSports🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.64%E -5.98%K -60.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -12.59%E -2.29%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-29 01:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.08%EV -7.48%E -6.80%K -74.81%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%EV -14.18%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-29 01:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -3.28%E -2.85%K -21.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -17.36%E -3.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-29 01:59
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -5.80%E -5.18%K -48.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -20.54%E -4.11%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-29 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.5%2026-07-29 02:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.5%2026-07-29 02:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.5%2026-07-29 01:59
Matchbook◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.5%2026-07-29 01:59
Polymarket◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81%1.2%2026-07-29 02:00
Kalshi◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81%1.2%2026-07-28 23:45
Novig◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.71%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.29%1.4%2026-07-29 02:00
ProphetX◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.16%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.84%2.1%2026-07-29 02:00

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