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Michigan Wolverines v Alabama Crimson Tide
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michigan Wolverines (Local)
Prediction 79.98%1.25fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -11.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.36%79.94%79.83%81.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.191.2288.50%84.32%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit)
Prediction 20.02%4.99fair odd
EV +3.11%
Edge +0.604%
Kelly +0.749%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 5.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.90%20.06%20.17%22.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.664.685.1524.39%21.46%21.39%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan Wolverines (Local): 79.98%; Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit): 20.02%. For Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.99. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.11%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.10%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.90%EV +3.11%E +0.604%K +0.749%G +0.023% | 2.8% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.93%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.07%EV +1.11%E +0.219%K +0.274%G +0.003% | 3.8% | 2026-03-27 23:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.52%EV -3.23%E -2.67%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48%EV +0.107%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV +0.107%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV +0.107%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.63%E -4.77%K -31.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.107%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 23:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.63%E -4.77%K -31.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.107%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 23:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.42%E -5.49%K -37.79%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +0.107%E +0.021%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-27 23:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.63%E -4.77%K -31.25%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -1.90%E -0.387%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -3.90%E -0.812%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.90%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.90%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.90%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.90%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.90%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.90%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.90%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -5.90%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 23:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -5.90%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -7.22%E -6.23%K -45.15%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -5.90%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-27 23:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -7.22%E -6.23%K -45.15%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -5.90%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-27 23:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV -6.90%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.63%E -4.77%K -31.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.63%E -4.77%K -31.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.42%E -5.49%K -37.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.42%E -5.49%K -37.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-27 23:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.42%E -5.49%K -37.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -7.22%E -6.23%K -45.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -5.63%E -4.77%K -31.25%G +0.000% | 4.46I 22.42%NM 20.92%EV -10.70%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-27 23:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -6.42%E -5.49%K -37.79%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -11.91%E -2.71%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -6.42%E -5.49%K -37.79%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -11.91%E -2.71%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.57%EV -9.62%E -8.52%K -74.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -11.91%E -2.71%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -13.31%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -2.43%E -1.99%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -13.91%E -3.23%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -4.83%E -4.05%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -14.91%E -3.51%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-27 23:34 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -4.03%E -3.35%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -17.91%E -4.37%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-27 23:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.87% | 6.62I 15.11%NM 15.13% | -0.1% | 2026-03-27 23:34 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 0.5% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.02% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.98% | 0.8% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83% | 1.0% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.2% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.2% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.3% | 2026-03-27 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.41% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.59% | 1.5% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.54% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.46% | 2.2% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |