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Louisville Cardinals v SMU Mustangs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Louisville Cardinals (Local)
Prediction 71.18%1.40fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -8.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.55%71.19%71.12%72.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.331.3676.92%74.87%74.91%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SMU Mustangs (Visit)
Prediction 28.82%3.47fair odd
EV +0.854%
Edge +0.244%
Kelly +0.341%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.23%28.81%28.88%30.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.063.283.253.5032.68%30.52%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 71.18%; SMU Mustangs (Visit): 28.82%. For SMU Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.854%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +0.854%E +0.244%K +0.341%G +0.003% | 3.8% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.75%E -5.15%K -21.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.854%E +0.244%K +0.341%G +0.003% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:26 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.44%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -0.587%E -0.170%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.587%E -0.170%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.587%E -0.170%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.587%E -0.170%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.587%E -0.170%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.61%E -3.44%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.03%E -0.596%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.64%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -3.18%E -0.947%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.47%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.47%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.47%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.47%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.19%E -2.34%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -4.91%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-11 18:17 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.61%E -3.44%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.91%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.91%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.91%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.19%E -2.34%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.46%E -5.74%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.46%E -5.74%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.35%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.68%EV -4.61%E -3.44%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.32%EV -6.93%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.19%E -2.34%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.79%E -2.43%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.79%E -2.43%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.79%E -2.43%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.90%E -2.89%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.79%E -2.43%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.61%E -3.44%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.79%E -2.43%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.79%E -2.43%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.79%E -2.43%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.32%E -4.00%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.04%E -4.57%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-11 18:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -4.61%E -3.44%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -10.10%E -3.24%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -7.46%E -5.74%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-11 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -7.46%E -5.74%K -24.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.55%EV -4.61%E -3.44%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.45%EV -11.83%E -3.86%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61% | 0.2% | 2026-03-11 18:29 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-03-11 18:30 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.36% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 29.64% | 8.5% | 2026-03-11 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 44.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 55.74% | 66.1% | 2026-03-11 18:35 |